The Turn Due North ( well almost) and what does it MEAN?

[Guest]

The turn to 340 degrees perhaps at times 360 appears to have occurred 6-12 hrs earlier than forecast.

so what does it mean...?

It is NOT a given that SW FL is under direct Threat but now the threat is Increasing.

The KEY question is how long doe s Charley hold due north. we all know due to models and more importantly the moster trough coming in from the north central Gulf .... that he WILL turn at SOME point to a NNE then perhaps NE track.

so how long does he hold the DUE track up 82.5 or 82.8 west Long ....?

If it is just 6 - 12 hrs then he turns to a heading of say 020.... then say hello everglades... and Miami!

If Charley holds the N course for 12 - 18 more hours .... then he turns to a heading of say 020.... then say hello Ft Myers / Naples


If Charley holds the N course for 18 - 24 more hours .... then he turns to a heading of say 020.... then Tampa Bay Metro area gets a New name SEA WORLD....

If Charley holds the N course for 24-30 more hours .... then he turns to a heading of say 020.... then say hello Cedar Key...
but based on the forecasted winds at 24 hrs nearing the central FL coast.... at 500 and 200 MB I dont see a landfall North of Tampa...

[Guest]

I see a tampa landfall, with lots and lots of damage. Even if it doesn't hit Tampa, the Floridian gulf coast will pay for ignnoring the hurricane threat. This hurricane will freshen peoples minds up a bit, and if it hits Tampa we might have damage $$$ up in the Andrew range.

[flyingphish]

Which door would you choose DT ? A guessing game now. I will go with..San Carlos Park. This is a small community between Naples and Ft. Myers. Thanks for your input on this system and your sense of humor. Loved the dancing in the barn thing!

[Rainband]

Unfortunately The officials here are sure of the forecast

[Dmetal81]

I definitely see a westward component in this radar picture. I wouldnt say DUE north yet? Comments?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[rtd2]

I'm 99.9999999999999999999999998% sure thats NNW!

[tallywx]

On an unrelated topic...great time for the Tampa radar to go down!

from NWS Tampa:

FYI...RADAR PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT SO WE HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR UP AND RUNNING BY MORNING.

[sponger]

Wow that looks tight! I think we are in for nasty one!

[rtd2]

WHAT?????? boy I'd like to be the contrator on that repair call! name your price!....surley they hace a mobile radar unit for a spare????

[tallywx]

Look like we may have to resort to TV station radars...Double Doppler 10 http://www.tampabays10.com/weather/doppler/index.asp

or Fox 13 Skytower radar

http://www.wtvt.com/radaranim/radar.html

[rtd2]

Carefull with that SKTOWER CAM... remeber watching wlox13 here in biloxi in 1998 (georges) brought that 78 fotter to the ground on a LIVE SHOT!

[tampastorm]

No doubt about it, still continuing slightly west of north. Consistent for a few hours now.

[Dmetal81]

Agreed, I think convection is starting to increase in size again, look at the area north of Havana on the radar loop in the last few frames. Could just be spawning a new band too I suppose

[Guest]

next key question is WHERE DOES CHARLEY PASS WITH RESPECT TO KEY WEST?

west of Key West or rigth over it OR Just east of it...

The KEY WEST radar shows a 340 movement the sateliite at IR about the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

I dont think it goes anywhere near Key West. In order for it to pass over or near Key West, I believe it would have needed to pass right over Havana. By the looks of the radar, the little blip where Havana is didnt go under the eyewall (Still, I realize that Havana proper probably takes up more area than that blip suggests).

[Air Force Met]

next key question is WHERE DOES CHARLEY PASS WITH RESPECT TO KEY WEST?

west of Key West or rigth over it OR Just east of it...

The KEY WEST radar shows a 340 movement the sateliite at IR about the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I believe (with relative confidence) that it will pass west of Key West. Far enough, in fact, that I don't think they will see sustained hurricane force winds...maybe gusts...but not sustained.

[LSU]

It seems pretty obvious -- West.

[rtd2]

latest update shows only 30 mile area of 75+ winds so that puts the 105 wonds only 8-10 miles wide......