Far from a drought buster but I'll TAKE IT!

[azsnowman]

This sounds VERY interesting It's FAR from being a drought buster but it will Suuuuuuure help with my water bill "LOL!"


.DISCUSSION...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON A VERY WET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY YESTERDAYS PROGS...AND WAS ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY ELKO NV THROUGH TUCSON THENCE SOUTHWARD. SATELLITE
SHOWS THEIR IS A TIGHT VORT MAX OVER LAS VEGAS AND THEN A WEAKER
UPPER LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO. SAT PW VALUES AREA OVER 1.5 INCHES IN
SW AZ THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING TODAY FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA (AND HAVE ADDED THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND
GLEN/MARBLE CANYON ZONES) AS THE CONS LIST (WHICH IS EXISTING CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER) IS SHORTER THAN THE PROS; VORT MAX
NOW NEAR LAS VEGAS REMAINS IN AREA...MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATCH AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS ( THESE WINDS ALREADY SEEN IN 06Z FGZ
SOUNDING BTWN H7 AND H5)...LAST FEW DAYS THE WATCH AREA HAS SEEN
RAINFALL. ALSO NOTED THAT OUR SFC PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER
WRN AZ THIS MORNING A SIGN THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVING INTO
THIS AREA. TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO FAR WRN ARIZONA.
PROGS DO HAVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MVOING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. MODEL WIND STREAMLINES SHOW SOME INTERESTING SHEAR GOING
ON OVER OUR STATE WHICH COULD HELP KEEP PRECIP GOING DURING THE
NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MIGHT BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND... LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WROTE...

PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

DL

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM MST ZONES:
4/5/6/7/8/15/16/18/37/38.

[azsnowman]

We are getting BLASTED at the moment, can't stay online but a second due to HEAVY lightning and rain! Check out this radar loop:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kfsx.shtml

[azsnowman]

One more quick post then I'm OUTTA here:

FLOOD STATEMENT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
147 PM MST FRI AUG 13 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM MST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SOUTH CENTRAL APACHE

AT 136 PM MST WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN
OVER THE AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN
OVER THE AREA. ROADS WERE FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
AND AROUND THE SPRINGERVILLE AND EAGAR AREAS.

RADAR INDICATED THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
HAD DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$
DF




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD STATEMENT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
220 PM MST FRI AUG 13 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM MST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SOUTHERN NAVAJO

AT 205 PM MST WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN HAD FALL OVER THE AREA FROM EAST OF HWY 99 TO THE TAYLOR AND
SNOWFLAKE AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE HAS FALL
OVER THE AREAS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NORMALLY CREEKS AND
STREAMS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ALSO WATER MAY COVER AREA HIGHWAYS
AND ROADS.

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH THIS AREA.DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS OR STREAMS.

$$
DF



Dennis

[azsnowman]

I received .45" yesterday....some areas of the mountain received 1.23" to 1.68", TODAY "COULD" be the day


AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT AUG 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND CLOUD COVER THINNING OVER EASTERN LCR.
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
LI'S RANGE FROM -3 OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY TO -1 OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATE IS BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE PW'S FOR THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING ARE CLOSE TO AN INCH. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY WILD CARD IS HOW MUCH CLEARING
TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO INCREASE THE SURFACE
HEATING. WITH ALREADY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST FIVE ZONES.

THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE A THREAT EACH DAY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES WITH A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. CURRENT MODELS INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THE COMING
WEEK.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT THE
WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

MAS

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM MST
ZONES: 4/5/6/7/8/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/37/38.

[azsnowman]

What a BEAUTIFUL DAY yesterday WAS I had .76" of rain in an hour, NOT the gully washers, toad stranglers that were popping ALL around me....reports of quarter sized hail, 3" of rain in 1 hour to my North AND there's MORE to COME


AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SUN AUG 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA IS
BEING PRODUCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP
LIFT THE ATMOS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MONDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE
STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM. TUESDAY THE GFS SHOWS A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES CROSSING NORTHERN ARIZONA AND UTAH. NOT SURE WHETHER THE
GFS IS HANDLING THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WELL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE GFS MODEL IN THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES. IF THERE IS A
TROUGH AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...THEN TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO THE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A LOT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE GFS HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE ATMOS DRYING IN
THE MID-LEVEL ON SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THINKING THAT THE DRYING IS OVER DONE AND WE WILL KEEP A WET
FORECAST GOING.



Dennis

[CaptinCrunch]

Yea for Dennis

[azsnowman]

Yea for Dennis

THANK YOU, THANK YOU

And yet ANOTHER .84" yesterday but that fell in 15 MINUTES the lawn quickly became a swimming pool, the bar ditches became a running torrent, which is O'TAY Sounds like 3 more days of this intense activity then it starts backing off for a few days, which is typical, a slight break then it returns for Labor Day weekend and continues for another week and THEN....the most WONDERFUL time of the year starts......warm afternoons (65-75°) with COOL evenings (upper 30's to mid 40's)

Dennis

[dirtgirl]

My BF is in Phx this week on business. Last night he called and told me they were experiencing lots of lightning. Apparently things picked up, because a little later he sent me a text message that his rental car was hit by a flying, <b>flaming</b> palm frond as he was driving east on Camelback!

i miss the monsoon.

[azsnowman]

My BF is in Phx this week on business. Last night he called and told me they were experiencing lots of lightning. Apparently things picked up, because a little later he sent me a text message that his rental car was hit by a flying, <b>flaming</b> palm frond as he was driving east on Camelback!

i miss the monsoon.

Indeed....Phoenix and some outlaying Metro areas were POUNDED last night with "80 MPH" WINDS INTENSE lightning, downed power poles etc....

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

We had a good dumper this morning with 1.27in in one hour and a storm total of 1.45in. This is our best August daily rainfall since 2000 and brings back memories of past August dumpings. The core of the storm was actually a bit SW of me but we were in the heavy rain swath. There was also some close CG strikes one well within 1000 feet. Siginifcant wash flooding occurred and some local roads were close including Moson Road east of town where the following picture comes from-it's a video frame grab from the video I shot at what is one of the most dangerous wash crossings in Cochise County. There was a fatality here last year. Water at the time of the video shoot was probably about 3 ft deep having receded some 2 feet. Barriccades were out and the AZ DPS was on hand to keep the idiots out of the wash.

Steve
[/img]

[Stephanie]

I'm not happy about the flooding, but I'm SO GLAD that you've received some decent rainfall!

[Stormsfury]

Ditto Stephanie's sentiments ...

It gets quite hairy out West when it all comes down at once, but man, any little bit (or a lot in a short time) definitely helps, especially in this stage of the game ...

[azsnowman]

WOW Steve!

We just got home from a whirlwind trip to Camp Verde and Flagstaff......we were JUST ahead of cell that spawned a FUNNEL CLOUD in Sedona! We were on I-17 heading north back to Flag, we saw the cell and thought "OH SH*T!" and sure enough!!!! NOW....from Winslow to Snowflake, I was faced with estimated winds in EXCESS of 60 MPH with driving rain AND get this, a BLINDING DUST STORM between Winslow and Holbrook! I mean RAIN AND a DUST STORM, pretty BIZZARE!

Dennis