How the NHC messed up on the E coast of FL

[Dmetal81]

Ok, Im glad that my family is safe, but now I have a question. When my family in Daytona Beach woke up at 7am yesterday morning they were under a tropical storm warning. They chose at that time to not evacuate because there were NO voluntary evacuations at that time. At 12pm a hurricane watch was issued for north of them (flagler county north) still no evacuations. At 2-3pm yesterday (there was so much going on) they went straight from a Tropical Storm warning to a hurricane warning, and evacuations started as the worst of charlie was already hitting SW Fla. Now, I undersstand that tracks and intensity's of hurricanes are always uncertain, but a warning should have been up for them long before it was. Why? Florida is only 200-250 miles wide, if there is a hurricane warning on the west coast, and a storm is moving across the state with an easterly component, then there needs to be warnings for the e coast too. Some of this is their own fault due to complacency, but there were a few scary moments for them last night when winds did gust over 100 around their MOBILE HOME. Why didnt they evacuate last night? 4 hours warning and massive traffic is the reason. You cant evacuate the E coast of fla in 4 hours.... this is a major flub in my opinion, those people should had been warned hours before, especially with warnings having been up w coast of fla for over 24 hours....

[Dmetal81]

BTW, i am not trying to point fingers, but understand, I had tried to tell my family yesterday all day to leave, but they wouldnt for the sole reason that there were no evacuations and only TS warnings. They were lucky, but some of the other homes around them were not. They had people running up to their house in the middle of the storm because their homes had started to come apart around them.... I realize forecasting is by no means perfect...

[Windsong]

I agree. I live on a barrier island. We got the evacuation speech after 4 pm. Way too late. We were stuck. No where to go anyhow. The evacuees from the west coast are here in the hotels.

The Brevard County Emergency Coordinator got on TV, white faced and dazed and said he was absolutely stunned at the turn of events and recognised that it was kind of late to order a mandatory evacuation, so he made it voluntary. Jeez......

We lost power before it hit Orlando and just got it back at 3 am. Looking out the window in the light of day, looks not too bad.

[Dmetal81]

Glad im not the only one that thought this, I didnt want to get pounded by angry naysayers. Word from my family this morning, no power, and many of the trailers in their park partially to completely destroyed.... their maximum winds got right up around 100, this is after it traverese 250 miles of land....

[soonertwister]

Continually from 5PM TUESDAY until the hurricane passed, both Merritt Island and Daytona Beach were within the potential projected path of severe winds from Charley.

From 5PM TUESDAY.

There aren't any excuses here. If you risk being in a mobile home or on a barrier island under the effects of a hurricane, it's your responsibility to watch out for yourself. It doesn't matter if the local officials were late with evacuation orders or if warnings were seemingly too late.

Nobody who lives in a manufactured home or on a barrier island should ever put themselves at risk of being in either of those locations when a hurricane is in the area with a forecast that clearly shows that you could be hit by the influence of that hurricane. If you know that a last-minute evacuation can't be done, why did those persons wait until the last minute only to say "we can't evacuate, there isn't enough time?

It's how far from Merritt Island to the mainland? Maybe 20 miles at most? Would it have been too inconvenient to be an hour from home for part of a day, just in case?

And why were there no contingency plans to be anywhere other than a mobile home at the last minute with a hurricane nearby, when for four days continuously there had been an official path from the NHC that showed that they could be in danger from those winds?

There isn't any excuse, you are just making up excuses for lack of preparation. It's really easy to look back and see what should have been done in both cases. The real issue here is why weren't those actions taken, considering how easy it is to see what should have been done?

Sheesh! It's like getting hit by a train and complaining that the train didn't whistle before you got smacked while standing on the tracks.

[Dmetal81]

So you're saying you would have evacuated your home for a tropical storm warning while there were no voluntary or mandatory evacuations in effect? Right? I dont know, ive never evacuated for a tropical storm.

[Dmetal81]

By the way sooner, I do not appreciate your tone, this has been stressful enough without someone chiding me for not evacuating while there were no evacuation orders were in effect.

[wlfpack81]

Let's face it. Most peole in this country tend not to think like they should in certain situations and become so dependent on the media etc. to tell them what to do. If the forecasters don't say leave then most won't leave b/c they've become so blinded by TV, that if the TV does or doesn't say it, it must be true. In the future I think that even for TS there needs to be mandatory evacs of all in mobile homes parks. Those things can't take winds of over 55mph anyways.

[AlabamaDave]

Let's face it. Most peole in this country tend not to think like they should in certain situations and become so dependent on the media etc. to tell them what to do. If the forecasters don't say leave then most won't leave b/c they've become so blinded by TV, that if the TV does or doesn't say it, it must be true. In the future I think that even for TS there needs to be mandatory evacs of all in mobile homes parks. Those things can't take winds of over 55mph anyways.

I agree. I can't comprehend anyone staying in a trailer with a hurricane anywhere nearby. A thunderstorm can destroy a trailer, so why take the risk with a monstrous, unpredictable hurricane? And then after it's all over, rescue workers have to risk their lives combing through wreckage looking for all of these people who chose to ride out a HURRICANE in a TRAILER.

[Guest]

there doesn't need to be any orders to evacuate, you just do it. Living in where hurricanes venture only brings common sense to prepare at all times. Don't ever wait for govenment officials to tell you to evacuate. Just do it out of an abundance of caution.

[vbhoutex]

I think sooner has some good points here. I do realize that 99% of the people rely on the media for word and that the media relies on EM officials and the NHC for their information. However, as he pointed out these people were in warned areas long before the approach of the Hurricane. It is often stated by both NHC and local EM officials that anyone living in a manufactured home or on barrier islands should not stay around for any tropcial storm. Maybe if it is a minimal storm and it is obvious it could not strengthen enough to be a threat for structural damage, one might stay, but otherwise anyone in this type of situation(manufactured home, barrier islands)should leave, whether told to or not.

However, the comment about no where to go anyway points up another problem that maybe could have been addressed by the local officials. Were there any shelters opened? If not there should have been if these areas were in the warnings. That is a mis-step on the part of local officials if there were not shelters available in the warned areas. It does not take hours and hours to open these shelters. They are normally set and ready to go quickly in these situations, or they are here in TX.

BTW, I believe that at its' widest point the peninsula is 175 miles across, but I imagine the length of the track of Charley was at least 250 miles long.

Anyway, as harsh as it sounds, people in these situations really need to take responsibility for protecting themselves and their property whether officials are directing you to or not. Become educated about the weather and its' effects and how it might affect you in diffierent situations. That is one thing we try to do here at S2K-educate about the weather as well as reporting what we see happening with these systems, whether we agree with the official agencies or not. While we do not expect to or want to replace or be better than the NHC or any other official agency we are fortunate to have many trained professionals on site who help keep us informed.

[Windsong]

First of all, most of us were at work when the situation changed. Employers were NOT releasing ANYONE until it was official. 2 shelters on the mainland were available early evening. BTW, I live in a CBS home NOT in a flood zone. I wouldn't even want to be in a trailer in the kind of thunder storms we have around here, let alone a tropical storm.

Fact is, people here are not real impressed with tropical storm force winds. We get that in thunderstorms. Right or wrong, that's the way it is around here.

As far as people taking their lead from EM officials, that is what we, as a population, are TOLD to do here.

Was I ready? Yes. Why didn't I go? Mostly because I didn't want to be on the road possibly getting caught up in the chaos on the road, and perhaps preventing someone who NEEDED to be there from getting there at all. I am not in a flood zone and not in a trailer. I was far safer at home THIS TIME. I have left many times before BEFORE evacuation was ordered because of what I read on Storm2k, and I will again if need be.

And SoonerTwister, you are wrong. Up until late in the day yesterday, Central Brevard was forecasted to have TROPICAL STORM force winds. It was dropped to that from hurricane force winds the day before. So, the expectation was redefined and people here on the east coast made the best decisions with what they knew to be true at the time. It's easy for you to sit somewhere far away and pronounce your judgement. Have at it.

[themusk]

As far as people taking their lead from EM officials, that is what we, as a population, are TOLD to do here.

That's right. An effective response to a hazard requires that the response be coordinated (ie, haphazard, do-it-yourself evacuation kills), and that's what energency management is about. EM coordinates, the population responds.

And local emergency management definitely failed here. If I lived in one of the affected counties, I'd demand a review of what happened, and insist that the lessons learned be incorporated in a new EOP, pronto.

What's more, it's hubris to assume that the general population should be, or even could be, as informed about hazards as we are here. A sizable percentage of the population is underage. Another big big chunk of the population is elderly, and research shows that even healthy elderly have some marked cognitive impairments as compared to younger persons, especially when it comes to hazard response critical skills like flexibility and evaluating the value of information sources. Another big chunk of the population lack access, for whatever reason, to primary information sources (no computer, working two or even three jobs and having no time to do the research, immigrants with poor English skills, etc). A smaller but still important segment of society are too disabled or ill (even temporarily, such as those bedridden with a bad flu) to have been able to follow weather hazards closely. And I'd venture to guess that the readership of this board is of significantly above average intelligence. Simple statistical reality is that fully half of the population is of below average intelligience.

All of that, and more, is why emergency management professionals don't sit around thinking about how so many people are "too stupid" to seek safety. They spend their time thinking up ways of reaching as many people as possible, even those who are isolated from most sources of imformation, or those with cognitive impairments, and those who have low IQs. Certainly they want to reach, and appropriately coordinate, the vast majority of people who have significantly less intelligence than the readership of this board.

Solutions can never be found by sitting around after the storm and retrospectively labeling casualties, even those casualties in high risk areas who earlier refused a well-coordinated evacuation, as idiots. Solutions are found by looking carefully at the casualties and asking "what can we, as part of the emergency community, do in the future to insure that people like those we've lost will, in the future, better understand the consequences of an imminent hazard, and respond promptly and appropritely to future threats".

I mean, really, wouldn't you rather, if you had had the opportunity, have gotten on your knees, and written out a single syllable worded message of survival in crayon, and have saved some of those lives, than be sitting here today counting casualties?

[KBBOCA]

To back up this topic... anyone else remember the post about the school teacher in Brevard where all the kids are in portable units?! And she didn't know on Thurs. night whether school would be open on Friday? Seems like Brevard officials definitely were confused in the messages and coordination of response.

[Lindaloo]

By the way sooner, I do not appreciate your tone, this has been stressful enough without someone chiding me for not evacuating while there were no evacuation orders were in effect.

Um you asked the question. He was just answering you truthfully without sugar coating it.

[Windsong]

Great post Themusk. Very well put.

Lindaloo, I most respectfuly have to disagree. There is a difference between "lack of sugar coat" and just plain caustic. Granted, DMetal81 did ask the question. It is a legitimate one. We are all tired and stressed and remorseful that so many people paid the ultimate price for wrong choices. Nobody is disputing that lots of wrong choices were made here, by individuals AND by Emergency Management. Themusk is right. The only thing to do from here is exmaine what went right, what went wrong, and what can be done differently next time.

[Lindaloo]

There were lots of things done right as far as the NHC goes. The only thing that went wrong was people did not heed all watches and warnings.

I understand the stress because I have been through Camille, Frederic, Elena and georges. All different CATS. My family heeded warnings and evacuated. I was married and on my own for Elena. I did not evacuate and my emergency list was no where near up to date. Since then, I am better prepared and will no longer stay or ride out a hurricane whether it is a voluntary or mandetory evac. I will not wait for the storm to approach to say WHOOPS, I should have left! Nor will I put my family or animals in harms way.


Anyone that lives on a barrier island should evacuate in the event an approaching hurricane could make landfall near that island. Does not matter what intensity it is. Anyone in a mobile home should evac no matter the intensity. People in apartment complexes should evac no matter the intensity. And all people in poorly constructed homes should evac no matter the intensity.

In other words, the thinking of this only being a cat 2 is no excuse. A CAT 2 is a dangerous enough storm for the above mentioned.

[Dmetal81]

I think everyone missed the point of my topic......

There were no shelters open as of 3pm in Volusia County
There was no evacuation order till 5pm
The tropical storm force winds started around 9pm.
My dad was still at work at 2pm when the hurricane warning was issued. What you arent understanding here is that they were told only to expect winds of up to 60mph until 2pm yesterday, 7 hours before they expierienced not only hurricane force winds, but close to cat 3 winds. My father was told at 2pm (just before the HURRICANE) warning went out that he had to stay at work because they were not closing. As far as Volusia and Brevard county were concerned, they were not going to receive anything but a good blow. 65mph in that county is nothing, it happens so many times a year that no one really even worries about it.

Rely on the media? No my parents were relying on Emergency Management to tell them that it was going to be necessary to evacuate.
They didnt until 4 hours before things got bad. That was my point. They knew there was a hurricane out there, but they emergency managment didnt react to it, hence the people did it. How are you supposed to evacuate, when there is no indication to do so, your employer expects you at work, and there is no shelters open??????

[themusk]

I think everyone missed the point of my topic......

<snip>

How are you supposed to evacuate, when there is no indication to do so, your employer expects you at work, and there is no shelters open??????

Oh, I got it. That was a definite failure by local and regional Emergency Management, who did not follow accepted preparedness practices when dealing with this storm. Had they done so, the information provided to them by the NWS would have triggered a limited voluntary evacuation with ample time to spare, and would have led them to open the region's shelters. My guess is that all their thinking and planning focuses on hurricanes coming from the other direction, and they were confused as to how to handle this one.

As I said, if I lived there, I'd ride my local and county governments to address what broke down and fix it as fast as possible, because we're not even halfway through a potentially devastating season. It's not inconceivable that we'll be watching another gulf coast major making landfall as soon as next week.

But blame the guys at fault. NWS did its job. From my experience in emergency management I can assure you that local emergency management did not do its job.