Time to stop a forecasted track line?????

[Dean4Storms]

After seeing the results of Charley with his sudden turn and the destruction and possible great loss of life caused largely by an assumption that Charley was headed toward Tampa, I think it's a good idea for NHC to get away from a line and just use a cone spread out to encompass the entire Hurricane Warning area. We know there will always be some people who will ignore warnings no matter what. But at least the NHC and officials wouldn't get the blame for telling everyone it was headed elsewhere when they never really did with any certainty anyway. Hurricane Warnings aren't taken so seriously when you have a line being drawn 100 miles to your north!

[PTPatrick]

I have to say...after seeing this, I think maybe it is time. Perhaps something like the double cone that the weather channel used to use. Where the highest threat area is in red, and the lower threat in Yellow.

[Stormsfury]

I agree and disagree at the same time, Dean ...

Yes, perhaps the line tends to mislead the less versed in the weather community ... however, the media also does reiterate the any deviations left or right of the track have significant impacts either less or more on the weather conditions expected ...

I do not know low local media handled the situation in Florida, but all the local TV stations in Charleston here have been absolutely excellent in coverage and keeping people informed ... all three stations are still on continual coverage, even though the system is now well ENE of Charleston, keeping viewers informed that are in Northeastern Charleston County, and Georgetown Counties ... they continued to enforce that you should NOT venture out period as the storm came into Charleston.

It is also the individual's responsibility to take action and unfortunately, Charley showed just what sudden changes can occur and the consequences of that ... a reverse trend to storms like Lili, Isidore, and Opal where rapid weakening occurred just before landfall. (especially Lili, encountered strong shear, and an eyewall replacement cycle that could never replace due to that strong shear ...

SF

[KBBOCA]

I agree. The NHC info was accurate, but the public perception likely incorrect. I don't think most people realize how far out hurricane force winds can extend (or even what TS-winds are like). Furthermore, most don't realize that it is the east side of the storm that is most dangerous...

Saw this in SE Florida with Irene. There were warnings up for PB County, but NO ONE took them seriously.

Also, perhaps using the cone would help people get away from the focus on where it will hit land. I bet many folks in Orlando & Daytona are wishing they'd taken more precautions...

[Agua]

I mentioned this very thing about 40 minutes ago in a post on "NHC Bias" thread.

I think that perhaps they should consider going with no more than a "cone of uncertainty" approach for landfall forecasts.

[Derek Ortt]

Absolutely not.

Those forecast lines also have a scientific purpose and they show how the forecasts can be better. Just because some are too dumb to realize that a hurricane is not a point, is not a reason to jeopardize the long term scientific good

[stormchazer]

I am a bit suprised with the reactions on this board.

If you spend anytime here you know that Hurricane forecasting is only as good as the model outputs. This the reason you see the cone with areas of possible uncertainty, because the track can deviate. If anything, this is a reminder, a sad one unfortunately, that when a Hurricane approaches your area, you should be prepared for anything.

I did not hear one forecaster in the last few days not mention, that there could be deviations to the track. We just were not listening.

I hope we can stop the "blame-game" and get on helping each other clean up.

[Agua]

Of course Derek, but perhaps those tracks should not be published as "offical tracks"?

Perhaps relase them styled as something such as "working base". The media DID oversimplify the process, but it can't be disputed that the "official track" and it's illusion of a precise landfall is the shiny coin they swooped upon.

Don't lose sight of the fact that the NHC is in this business for the safety and welfare of the citizens and scientific development is only to further that purpose.

[Edited to include the following:]

What I'm getting at is that the general public simply doesn't, and can't be expected, to have a sophisticated understanding of tropical forecasting and it's limitations when the media is pounding a specific thought into their head of a precise landfall.

[goodlife]

I agree with Derek...
And forecasters NEVER say this is ABSOLUTELY where it's going everybody else is out of the woods...
They are VERY clear about the uncertainty of these storms...
We can't harness Mother Nature and she's got a mind of her own to be sure!

[Ixolib]

Speaking as a storm veteran, I also think the new five-day projections are causing complacancy for folks who aren't initially in the cone. Yesterday's reaction in SWFL is a possible testiment to the complacent attitude many displayed. I believe people need to be informed, but I think too much non-specific projection info leads some to believe they will be okay because they established their mind-set five days out. As many know, these systems can, and more times than not, do change thier landfall at the last minute... But there are unfortunately many more who don't recognize that reality.

[goodlife]

The complacency isn't due to the NHC though...that's due to the fact that they've not had a hit in so long and don't really comprehend the power of these things..

[Aquawind]

Absolutely not.

Those forecast lines also have a scientific purpose and they show how the forecasts can be better. Just because some are too dumb to realize that a hurricane is not a point, is not a reason to jeopardize the long term scientific good

Bingo..Some people are stupid and ignorrant probably always will be..No excuses.. plans for survival and evacuation should have been made months ago..has nothing to do with a dot or line on paper..People need to listen to local authorities..

[Agua]

I agree with Derek...
And forecasters NEVER say this is ABSOLUTELY where it's going everybody else is out of the woods...
They are VERY clear about the uncertainty of these storms...
We can't harness Mother Nature and she's got a mind of her own to be sure!

No. I've never heard any fool say "[S]torm X is ABSOLUTELY going to location Z" (hehe he.. well, I have on this board ... LOL). But the dissemination through the media is not, as you represent, always "VERY clear about the uncertainty of these storms...."

[jvance75]

I think it's about time to only show a cone.....some stations here in Florida...including the one with the highest viewership in the state...WFLA only showed a line and no cone....

[MWatkins]

I think the problem is not with the track line itself but instead how the media communicates the information. I don't see a problem with the offical pakage...see another thread on my thoughts about the media...

MW

[weatherFrEaK]

Fine, leave the freakin' line for the scientists, and have a cone for the general public and media. Common good is left for both the scientific community and for the general public.

[Dean4Storms]

Absolutely not.

Those forecast lines also have a scientific purpose and they show how the forecasts can be better. Just because some are too dumb to realize that a hurricane is not a point, is not a reason to jeopardize the long term scientific good

Derek, not talking about what meteorolgists use here, talking about what is shown the public by TV, internet and Newspapers. The NHC is a government agency developed to identify, track and warn the public of TC events. If what they use to warn the public causes a false sense of security because you are being shown a line with a landfall 100 miles away within a actual 6 hr. landfall window and it turns and comes your way, that has to be addressed. People are naturally skeptical and lazy to some extent, I mean who wants to board up, pack up and drive for hours if you are being shown that the likely landfall is over a hundred miles away?

Get past the scientific aspect of this, nobody is talking about lessening the science in forecasting, we are talking about unattended misleading of the public and saving lives, which is MUCH more important at this point!

[Agua]

Absolutely not.

Those forecast lines also have a scientific purpose and they show how the forecasts can be better. Just because some are too dumb to realize that a hurricane is not a point, is not a reason to jeopardize the long term scientific good

Bingo..Some people are stupid and ignorrant probably always will be..No excuses.. plans for survival and evacuation should have been made months ago..has nothing to do with a dot or line on paper..People need to listen to local authorities..

Well, hell then, why don't they just throw out a list of about 70 sets of long / lat # for their cones? If people can't figure it out, they're just stupid and ignorant. :rolleyes:

You're losing sight of the purpose of tropical prediction. If we KNOW that people are ignorant as to the sophistication of tropical forecasting, shouldn't that be taken into account as to what is presented to them with regard to likely landfall?

No one is saying for them to eliminate their own predicted tracks, but when it's thrown out there as "official track", it's seized upon because it's easily digested. I'm simply suggesting that perhaps the public emphasis should be put on something more amorphous as a "landfall projection" or something.

[KBBOCA]

Sounds good weather freak! I agree, leave the line for professionals and researchers, but for communicating with the general public, the cone is a must. It IS about public safety.

Perhaps they can do some kind of poll/study of those in SW FL comparing evacuation rates with those who saw the cone on TV, etc. vs. those who only saw the line? Would be interesting and useful!

[Derek Ortt]

I CAN go along wiht the line but presenting only a cone to the public