7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, August 16, 2004

[vbhoutex]

7:00AM TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
MONDAY, AUGUST 16, 2004

Tropical Storm Earl is difficult to locate this morning in terms of defining a center of circulation. Based on satellite pictures and a burst of cold topped convection near the apparent center he is located at 13.2N, 67.2W or about 410 miles South-Southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Movement is towards the West-Northwest at an estimated 21 mph which means TS Earl has slowed his forward speed some since yesterday at this time. This could aid in the beginning of development in earnest for Earl. This track and speed is expected to be mainitained for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 45 mph with some higher gusts. and TS Earl is expected to continue to strengthen as he moves into somewhat favorable conditions for continued strengthening. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles form the center of Earl and his central pressure is estimated at 1009mb or 29.80 inches. A reconasaince plane is scheduled to investigate Earl this morning after the government of Venezuela refused to allow Recon planes into their airspace yesterday to investigate the system. Current model runs show Earl continuing his WNW movement for the next few days and crossing the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico in about 4 days. All interests on the the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Gulf of Mexico should be monitoring the progress of Earl at this time.

Hurricane Danielle is located in the far Eastern Atlantic Basin near 17.2N, 36.3W or about 820 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands. Her maiximum winds are sustained near 105 mph with higher gusts mainly in squalls West of the center. Danielle is expected to maintain this strenth with little change over the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the now elongated center of Danielle with tropcial storm winds extending up to 105 miles from the center. Her estimated central pressure is 970mb or 28.64 inches. Danielle is expected to begin a turn more towards the Northwest and then North to Northeast in the next few days and not expected to be a threat to land areas.

A tropical wave about 350 miles Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization this morning. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible over the next few days.

Elsewhere in the Alantic Basin no tropical storm development is expected through Tuesday.

This is NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. Please check with the NHC and you local weather offices for details of the weather in your area.

[Guest]

SORRY folks but EARL looks dead... too may are reading the TPC discussions and just re-wording it. The fact EARL is moving way too fast and is suffering from RS -- RELATIVE SHEAR

The evidence is CLEAR.... TD 2 / Bonnie -- Charlye and now Earl.... the tendency we have seen over the past 4-5 years of extremely fast E to W movement cotinues

[vbhoutex]

Dave, I respect your opinions and your forecasting expertise. However, I don't think Earl, in the long run, is dead. He may be on life support at this time, but that does not mean regeneration can't occurr down the road. He has slowed down by at least 8 mph from yesterday also. If that trend continues then the realtive shear lessens and Earl could become a player and rather quickly too due to the conducive environment he is moving into. I personally like to err on the side of caution until the evidence is clear that a system doesn't have a chance.