THIS WAVE

[HUC]

This morning,it appears that the wave just of the African coast should be a serious candidate for a strong CV system;plenty of convection,out of the ITCZ,not to much south,upper levels somewhat favorable.
This time of the season,we had to pay attention to this area.So,something to watch carrefully.Any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HOVMOELLER
DIAGRAMS SHOW A DISTINCT CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS W AFRICA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TIMESECTIONS FROM BAMAKO
AND DAKAR SHOW A WAVE PASSAGE PRIMARILY BELOW 800 MB. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE TILTED TO THE EAST WITH HEIGHT...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND
THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE VERTICAL SOUNDINGS FROM W AFRICA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM MET-8 ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDES. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23.5W

This wave has been introduced at the TWD and this one wlll have to be watched in comming days as it has a well defined LLC.

[OURAGAN]

Here is the update a 6:20 AM:
http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg
I tkink it's a candidate.

[wxman57]

Yep, maybe, looks exactly like the one that's now at 45W did 2-3 days ago. Note the one at 45W is pretty much void of convection. There was a big SAL burst earlier this week, so this new wave may be fighting off dry air and moving too fast initially.

[rbaker]

the looks of this system is circular already, does anyone know if it has a low with it yet? Of course we will have to see if convection will stay together when it gets out around 40 long w. SST's and of course climitology are favorable since we are now getting into heart of cape verde season. Also, looks like from wv that ridge is running along with the system, so I say it has a better than 50/50 shot of being a large storm. The name Frances or is it Francis even sounds bad.