6:00 UTC models trend a little more west

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cycloneye
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6:00 UTC models trend a little more west

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:50 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 0600 040824 1800 040825 0600 040825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 30.5W 10.5N 33.5W 10.6N 36.5W 10.9N 39.3W
BAMM 10.2N 30.5W 10.4N 33.6W 10.4N 36.6W 10.5N 39.3W
A98E 10.2N 30.5W 10.1N 33.6W 10.2N 36.7W 10.2N 39.7W
LBAR 10.2N 30.5W 10.4N 33.5W 10.8N 36.4W 11.1N 39.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 0600 040827 0600 040828 0600 040829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 41.6W 13.0N 45.0W 13.9N 46.4W 13.7N 47.1W
BAMM 11.0N 41.4W 12.7N 43.7W 14.2N 43.5W 15.5N 42.8W
A98E 10.3N 42.3W 10.4N 46.4W 10.3N 50.1W 10.3N 54.1W
LBAR 11.8N 42.5W 13.7N 47.1W 15.4N 49.6W 15.7N 50.1W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 25.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW

Definite the change from last night when they were going northward fishing.It will be interesting to see if the trough will really make it climb.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Tip » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:26 am

After a few runs that carried Frances further west, the GFS has flopped back to its original prediction of eroding the Atlatic ridge. This allows the storm to turn north. However, this is at day10 and the GFS can easily change again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240s.gif
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:11 am

We'll see if the ole.."Weaker West or Stronger Turner" concept applys in Frances motion..Of course the ole stair stepping confused LLC type of system would be no surprise..but I have a feeling it will get it's Name and keep it's LLC till a cane..unlike the previous waves moving west at 20kts plus..
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