Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Thursday August 26, 2004 11pm
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Hurricane Frances has strengthened. It is now up to 85 mph. I see no reason for this not to increase to category 2 hurricane strength overnight, and to major hurricane status tomorrow.
The movement is west-northwest at 15 mph. I expect that to stay the same, and not slow or speed up at all. At 72 hrs, I expect the ridge to build back in and for Frances to push west. My forecast track follows the NHC's track until 72 hrs.
Currently, I see no reason why strengthening should stop. I keep the system status quo in the 72 hrs timeframe due to some POSSIBLE shear. After that, it moves due west and begins to intensify again. I am forecasting a category 4 in about five days. I am actually decreasing the winds of my thinking just to be safe... for now.
NOTE: WATCH FRANCES. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY VERY STRONG AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
12 HRS-- 15.0N-- 49.1 W-- 90 kt
24 HRS-- 16.3N-- 51.2 W-- 95 kt
36 HRS-- 17.5N-- 52.8 W-- 100 kt
48 HRS-- 18.4N-- 54.0 W-- 110 kt
72 HRS-- 19.0N-- 57.8 W-- 115 kt
96 HRS-- 21.3N-- 63.0 W-- 115 kt
120 HRS- 22.0N-- 65.5 W-- 120 kt
