Regarding the Gulf...

[frederic79]

I'm certainly no expert in these things, but here's my 2 cents on Frances and the Gulf. I could see the Bermuda high building in over Frances and taking in due west for several days to a point somewhere to the north of eastern Cuba, possible a little further, based on current discussions by the NHC. A day or two prior to Frances attaining that longitude, around Thursday of next week, both TWC and AccuWeather show a cold front moving into the northern Gulf from the west and hanging around for several days, until Labor Day or thereabouts. That would lead me to think the front would cause Frances to recurve, unless Frances is too far south to be impacted strongly, depending on how far south the front digs. In that case, Frances could slow and even stall as steering currents break down to the north and the high moves east causing a return southerly flow to the northern Gulf around September 7. If at that point Frances is still in the vicinity of northern Cuba (i. e. Isidore/Yukatan), I suspect there'd be potential for a Gulf landfall later in the week following Labor Day. Thoughts?

[Josephine96]

My opinion is the only way Frances would make it to the Gulf.. is if she came through Central or South Florida 1st

[alicia-w]

It wouldnt take much, would it? THere's not much to South Florida and if this storm maintains any size at all, it could cross it easily into the Gulf.

[Josephine96]

Guess you're right Alicia..

[Brent]

It wouldnt take much, would it? THere's not much to South Florida and if this storm maintains any size at all, it could cross it easily into the Gulf.

South Florida is about the best piece of land for a hurricane to maintain intensity or only weaken slightly.

[GalvestonDuck]

It wouldnt take much, would it? THere's not much to South Florida and if this storm maintains any size at all, it could cross it easily into the Gulf.

South Florida is about the best piece of land for a hurricane to maintain intensity or only weaken slightly.

Like Andrew did.

[Josephine96]

Andrew was a monster

[Brent]

Just to be clear... I'm not comparing Frances to Andrew. There are some similarities, but there are also big differences. Andrew was only a weak TS at this point.

[Air Force Met]

Yep...the GOM is a possibility.

[alicia-w]

She's a real beauty!

[BayouVenteux]

...A day or two prior to Frances attaining that longitude, around Thursday of next week, both TWC and AccuWeather show a cold front moving into the northern Gulf from the west and hanging around for several days, until Labor Day or thereabouts. That would lead me to think the front would cause Frances to recurve, unless Frances is too far south to be impacted strongly, depending on how far south the front digs. In that case, Frances could slow and even stall as steering currents break down to the north and the high moves east causing a return southerly flow to the northern Gulf around September 7...

Yep. All depends where the eventual 5 to 7 day track of Frances ends up and what the, at this point, long-range forecasted trough's amplitude and longevity is. In any case, a long haul of waiting and wondering awaits us all.

[alicia-w]

Definitely some interesting data here:

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl41.html

[James]

Thanks for the link, Alicia!

[KatDaddy]

At most the E GOM/FLA W Coast will deal with Frances at most. Looks more like FLorida to Carolina's

[Stormcenter]

At most the E GOM/FLA W Coast will deal with Frances at most. Looks more like FLorida to Carolina's

Not a done at ALL KatDaddy.
Frances could still pose a problem for as far west as the central GOM if this ridge builds as predicted. Though I think the Houston area is safe.

[tallywx]

According to GFS, the flow in the 7 day range looks frighteningly zonal with a sprawling ridge stretching across the entire western atlantic into the eastern U.S. No weakness, no perturbations from troughs to the north. If that trend comes to reality, I can't see this system making it through the ridge to the Carolinas, although of course it's way too early to pin this steering pattern down as what will actually occur.

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually that front that you mentioned from TWC is supposed to be near the east coast at the end of THIS week, not next week. Around Sunday/Monday/Tuesday of this upcoming week that front will be moving towards and away from the East Coast and afterwards the high pressure ridge is forecast to build in. Just how strong that ridge will be is anyone's guess.

<RICKY>

I'm certainly no expert in these things, but here's my 2 cents on Frances and the Gulf. I could see the Bermuda high building in over Frances and taking in due west for several days to a point somewhere to the north of eastern Cuba, possible a little further, based on current discussions by the NHC. A day or two prior to Frances attaining that longitude, around Thursday of next week, both TWC and AccuWeather show a cold front moving into the northern Gulf from the west and hanging around for several days, until Labor Day or thereabouts. That would lead me to think the front would cause Frances to recurve, unless Frances is too far south to be impacted strongly, depending on how far south the front digs. In that case, Frances could slow and even stall as steering currents break down to the north and the high moves east causing a return southerly flow to the northern Gulf around September 7. If at that point Frances is still in the vicinity of northern Cuba (i. e. Isidore/Yukatan), I suspect there'd be potential for a Gulf landfall later in the week following Labor Day. Thoughts?

[HouTXmetro]

At most the E GOM/FLA W Coast will deal with Frances at most. Looks more like FLorida to Carolina's

Not a done at ALL KatDaddy.
Frances could still pose a problem for as far west as the central GOM if this ridge builds as predicted. Though I think the Houston area is safe.

History and climatology is on our side. Houston will be safe from any 'MAJOR' storm. If anything we will be side swiped by a fast moving weak Hurricane/TS moving from the south to our east/northeast, or a few outer bands from a major moving wsw towards the Brownsville/Corpus area. Otherwise I'll put money on the upper TX coast not seeing a DIRECT hit from any Hurricane this year. I'M KICKING MY SEASON OFF THIS WEEKEND, NO FOOTBALL INTERUPTIONS THIS YEAR!!!

[snowflake]

When will they have a better handle on where Frances is going to go?

[Josephine96]

probably at the end of the 5 day period when it's near if not just north of PR or near that point