Will Frances be a fish after all

[boca]

Because of 98L and 97L will a weakness occur to allow Frances to be a fish like Derek Orrt said.

[Josephine96]

I don't know boca.. It would let everybody settle down for sure though

[Anonymous]

Agree, thats what the UKMet has been sayying for 2 days.

[NJCane]

I hope so, then it will produce amazing waves on the whole east coast.

[Josephine96]

That's true.. It'd still cause big waves and probably some beach erosion

[NJCane]

If it went west into Florida there would not be large waves in the northeast US because the majority of the swell energy moves in the direction the hurricane moves and also NC would block us up here. It has happened many times.

[Brent]

I don't know. It may not affect it til it's too late and may force it into the Carolinas.

[Josephine96]

Makes sense

[blizzard20]

80% likely hit the east coast . likely track is towards florida coast then up the east coast towards sne area. frances will not go into the gulf coast area .

[Guest]

I agree with blizzard, It will scare everyone in Florida, however I think it will landfall in NC or SC and move up west of the big cities.

[Weatherboy1]

The setup now is very similar to what we had with Isabel. And yes, that low off the SC coast could weaken the W end of the ridge and allow Frances to curve into that weakness. But there are two problems with this scenario: 1) From what I've ready, that low is expected to get caught up by the front approaching through the midsection of the country. It should be ejected N and NE. 2) Frances is still days away from the SE coast. It seems unlikely to me that the low will sit there for 5/6 days, which is about what you'd need for Frances to start feeling that weakness, in my opinion. If this thing does not get ejected by the front, it would likely get steered inland by the developing ridge.

I could be wrong on this, but that's my feeling right now.

[Air Force Met]

I doubt it. Any weakness that will be caused by 97 or 98 will be long gone by the time Frances gets there because of her slow movement.

97 will move in on 2-3 days...and 98 will be right behind it. BY about 120 hours or so...the weakness that was caused by the combined efforts of 97 and 98 should be lifting out and the ridge will build back west in response with nothing in sight to knock it down.

[TLHR]

If Frances has not curved out to sea by Wednesday, then there will most likely be a US landfall.

[boca]

air force met does FL need to be concerned or more toward the Carolinas?

[PurdueWx80]

Another possibility is that these storms will only add more heat to the ridge, which would pump it more. A stronger ridge further west means a better likelihood of a FL or Gulf storm. AFM is right, these will be long gone by the time Frances gets close enough.

[Matthew5]

What is your latest thinking on 97L/98L at this moment?

[jlauderdal]

I doubt it. Any weakness that will be caused by 97 or 98 will be long gone by the time Frances gets there because of her slow movement.

97 will move in on 2-3 days...and 98 will be right behind it. BY about 120 hours or so...the weakness that was caused by the combined efforts of 97 and 98 should be lifting out and the ridge will build back west in response with nothing in sight to knock it down.

finally a voice of reason...i dont see where these fisherman on the board see how that ridge is going to get knocked down. i hear fish and see no reasoning behind it.

[Aquawind]

Wait till the models get ahold of these 2 new Invests...

Well these new invests are somewhat good news as far as Frances is concerned..Unless of course they are the problems themselves as well...

This slow development and movement is gonna have this board squirming for days..if not weeks ahead..

[Air Force Met]

air force met does FL need to be concerned or more toward the Carolinas?

At this point...both do.

[Air Force Met]

Wait till the models get ahold of these 2 new Invests...

Well these new invests are somewhat good news as far as Frances is concerned..Unless of course they are the problems themselves as well...

This slow development and movement is gonna have this board squirming for days..if not weeks ahead..

Unless 97 and 98 hang around for more than 7 days...they will have no impact on Frances because she is moving so slow. By the time she gets to where they are now...they will be inland and pulling NE. The ridge will be building back in as a result of them lifting out. They will not leave a weakness in place because they will lift out and the ridge builds back in as a result of them lifting out AND the longwave digging into the western US.