TD 7 forecast one

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl072004forecast.html

No input from me was given in this, but Cangialosi is a much better forecaster than me anyways

[PurdueWx80]

Great forecast - given today's rapid organization and the excellent outflow pattern, I agree that this will become a minimal hurricane before making landfall. The chances of this happening are obviously higher if it moves more slowly than forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

what I will say is that the UL patters appears to be extremely favorable for quick development. Plus, Alex is still quite fresh in our minds as well and its RI in less favorable conditions than this has

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, hurricane strength... Good forecast.

[Steve]

Thanks Derek. I knew you guys were on it when you posted in the weekend predictions for sc/nc thread. I'm thinking the SC Coast. What worries me (along with the slow movement) is the ground that's gonna be saturated by Gaston-to-be only a few days in advance of the possibility of at least a Cat 2 landfalling Frances. Two things come into play: 1) Saturated ground = flooding; 2) Soft ground = knocked down treees.

You guys in the coastal Carolinas (especially SC and southern NC) need to beware. But your beer now.

Steve

[rainstorm]

i think it will hit in savannah, and im not buying a ne movement later

[Derek Ortt]

NE motion should come after landfall as the trough that was over Ohio yesterdya erodes the ridge currently blocking the movement of 7/gaston

[rainstorm]

i hope not. way too much rain here