TD 7 8pm-1012 mb pressure, 30 mph winds

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the southeastern U.S. Coast
from Surf City North Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach
Florida.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 77.8 west or about
150 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

The depression has been moving slowly and erratically toward the
south-southeast. A slow westward drift is expected to begin later
tonight or Saturday. This motion could bring the center closer to
the southeastern U.S. Coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along
the track of the depression.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.3 N... 77.8 W. Movement...
slow and erratic south-southeastward. Maximum sustained winds... 30
mph. Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

I was expecting to see a RECON going there tonight but I found they are going to send it tomorrow.

[rbaker]

i thought a s-se movement was seen on radar, but sat shows northerly shear, but with weak system it may take it down to about fla. ga border before it take that jog west.

[Hyperstorm]

It's definitely drifting southeast this evening. Also, the fact that it's moving in tandem with the UL high (southward), will keep it under fairly favorable conditions for sometime. This just delays any landfall/weakening possibilities. In fact, the longer it takes to change its course to the west, the higher the chances are for it to become stronger than anticipated.

I really doubt this one will come ashore tomorrow. Sunday at the earliest...and as a strong tropical storm.

[MBryant]

Don't forget Allen, Mitch and Hugo if your studying Cat 5s. These were all monster storms at some point befoere weakening before landfall.

The premature intensification of Frances before landfall and hopefully a slower forward speed are the hopefull signs for an early weakening of Frances. Let's hope a few others arrive before landfall.