Questions from some newbies!!! (m)

[charley]

Hi ~

We're new here and don't know anything about the technical jargon that is being tossed around in this forum. HOWEVER, we *really* would like some input, information, advice, whatever regarding this hurricane.

We're transplanted from Oregon and had never experienced a hurricane until Charley came along. It just grazed us but still was frightening, and now we're looking at Frances and thinking, "OH CRAP!"

For those of you "in the know", what do you think are the chances the Melbourne area could take a direct hit? Do you think Frances will come up that far north? If this storm hits southern Florida as a category 4 or 5, how far north will hurricane-force winds extend (theoretically ~ we realize no one knows with absolute certainty the answer to this)?

We know to board our windows and we have supplies already (flashlights, batteries, food, water, 1st aid kit, etc etc etc), but our biggest fear is that our house will be destroyed. We're in a rental and don't know where the heck we would go or what we'd do if our house were damaged badly.

At what category intensity would YOU evacuate, assuming that Frances hits land in southern Florida, not central Florida? Also, what are good websites to get current, up-to-the-moment information?

Thanks so much for any and all information! We're not panicking, but we want to be as prepared as possible ~ we have 6 kids to protect!

Thanks again.

[weatherdude]

Hi and welcome to the storm2k message board. (I also just joined this afternoon. As an answer to your 1st question...at this time it looks like Melbourne should be fine (lots of time for this to change mind you) partially due to the fact that Melbourne is situated on FL eastern peninsula and a direct hit would mean the storm would have to first travel over land say...Ft. Myers and weaken like Charley did. However...I am not saying this is what Frances will do. The lates models (you can get the text data from http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/hurr_txt.htm and graphics from http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm which both happen to be within the midatlantic wx site. To add onto what I mentioned earlier...it looks like Frances may actually take a jog NW once it reaches about 70W and may actually move up the SE and Mid atlantic coasts.

Another good site for hurricane info is http://www.wunderground.com/tropical where info on storms usually comes in before the TPC/NHC.

Hope this answered your questions and welcome to the discussion board.

[Janie34]

We're transplanted from Oregon and had never experienced a hurricane until Charley came along. It just grazed us but still was frightening, and now we're looking at Frances and thinking, "OH CRAP!"

Frankly I don't think there is a good side to being grazed by a Cat 4 storm, but if there is a silver lining its that people discover that hurricanes play for keeps sometimes. Its good that you are keeping an eye on the situation and making plans, thats really all you can do at this point. I'm afraid its a hazard of living in hurricane-prone areas.

For those of you "in the know", what do you think are the chances the Melbourne area could take a direct hit? Do you think Frances will come up that far north? If this storm hits southern Florida as a category 4 or 5, how far north will hurricane-force winds extend (theoretically ~ we realize no one knows with absolute certainty the answer to this)?

Its just my opinion, but I think it is still too early to call this with any kind of certainty. IMO anyone from the Carolinas all the way to the Keys needs to watch this....for that matter, the Gulf Coast needs to watch Frances like a hawk too. The NHC website has the curent information about the extent of Frances' hurricane-force winds. Its updated quite often.

We know to board our windows and we have supplies already (flashlights, batteries, food, water, 1st aid kit, etc etc etc), but our biggest fear is that our house will be destroyed. We're in a rental and don't know where the heck we would go or what we'd do if our house were damaged badly.

Remember its an excellent idea to be prepared, but don't panic. Thats a mistake and will be a source of more misery than assistance. In order to answer that question I'd need some information such as distance of the home from the coastline, height of the home above mean sea level, is the home close to a river or stream, is it surrounded by trees and if so what kind, you know, the topography counts for a lot. All of this is also predicated on where Frances might make landfall.

At what category intensity would YOU evacuate, assuming that Frances hits land in southern Florida, not central Florida? Also, what are good websites to get current, up-to-the-moment information?

Well, I'm not in southern Florida but I do live along the Gulf Coast. If I had a choice I'd evacuate at a strong Cat 3. I certainly would not stay through a 4 or a 5. Heh, this year the NWS might have something to say about whether I'm here or not in the event of a visit from Frances. Been there, done that. It was not fun. The National Hurricane Center is a good website, and also the NOAA/NWS webpage (National Weather Service.) Storm 2k also has some good information.

[mb229]

Weatherdude..I may be misunderstanding your response. Melbourne IS on the east FL coast. Frances is approaching from the SE. It would not have to "first travel over land" to strike Melbourne. help me understand your response better. Thanks.

M

[dhweather]

Hi ~

We're new here and don't know anything about the technical jargon that is being tossed around in this forum. HOWEVER, we *really* would like some input, information, advice, whatever regarding this hurricane.

We're transplanted from Oregon and had never experienced a hurricane until Charley came along. It just grazed us but still was frightening, and now we're looking at Frances and thinking, "OH CRAP!"

For those of you "in the know", what do you think are the chances the Melbourne area could take a direct hit? Do you think Frances will come up that far north? If this storm hits southern Florida as a category 4 or 5, how far north will hurricane-force winds extend (theoretically ~ we realize no one knows with absolute certainty the answer to this)?

We know to board our windows and we have supplies already (flashlights, batteries, food, water, 1st aid kit, etc etc etc), but our biggest fear is that our house will be destroyed. We're in a rental and don't know where the heck we would go or what we'd do if our house were damaged badly.

At what category intensity would YOU evacuate, assuming that Frances hits land in southern Florida, not central Florida? Also, what are good websites to get current, up-to-the-moment information?

Thanks so much for any and all information! We're not panicking, but we want to be as prepared as possible ~ we have 6 kids to protect!

Thanks again.

Quite simply, If a warning is issued for your area, board up and get out.
Local officials are always your best source for evacuation information.

[weatherdude]

mb229-
sorry-i guess that was a little vauge...I think Frances will either miss Melbourne altogether...or (as you said in you response) since she is coming from the SE the worst of the hurricane would likely be confined NE of Melbourne, FL. This is if Frances strikes Florida--and there is a bunch of time to watch this sytem.

And thanks for correcting me, after re-thinking what I wrote, if Frances makes landfall somewhere along the FL coast...Melbourne would still be in for nasty wx and strong winds.

L

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

The NHC models as of now are showing a northward turn in the forecasting models +84-120hrs from now, it may completely miss florida, and careen into south carolina, thats what our offices are reporting, but its simply too early to tell. Wait 2 days, that is when its time to think about safety.

[Guest]

Personally, I wouldn't get out by category, but I would by intensity. Anything above 100mph is too strong for me.

[TLHR]

Due to the situation with Gaston, I'm opening the Links section of my Yahoo Group: TLHR to the public. These links will be open until Gaston passes and will re-open if needed for Frances.

Click on the WWW to go to my Yahoo Group.

[mb229]

W'dude - Thanks for the clarification.
M

[weatherdude]

W'dude - Thanks for the clarification.
M

mb229-
no problem