Gulf Development?

[PurdueWx80]

I know we have a lot going on right now - but since there has been so much "surprise" development close to the US coastline this year, I wanted to start some discussion of Gulf development. There is already one old front in there, but it is basically just a line of convergence that runs E-W. Storms have been going for several hours in the NW Gulf. The next front should make it down there, which will only act to enhance convergence. Several models (Eta in particular) have been consistently developing a surface low in the northern Gulf for the week ahead. A piece of the trough currently through the midsection of the country should pinch off and retrograde slowly westward towards TX. If this happens that would be a pretty ideal setup for something to form just to its east. With relatively light shear and very warm SSTs (and w/ it being in the RRQ of the jet), it definitely has some potential.

[LAwxrgal]

Yep someone and I were talking about this this morning.

Look at what happened off the coast of SC.

I will be watching this area as it's west of me.

[rbaker]

eta, is not real good on tropical systems, if you notice its not even on the tropical model maps, because its not one.

[PurdueWx80]

eta, is not real good on tropical systems, if you notice its not even on the tropical model maps, because its not one.

This is true, but it is very good at seeing mesoscale features since its resolution is higher. The Eta picked out Gaston well before it developed, and was very consistent in its placement and depth. Other mesoscale models are also hinting at low development in the Gulf, so I refuse to ignore the Eta just because it isn't a "tropical" model. It beats the GFS in my book.

[dixiebreeze]

ETA is pretty good on storms that are close up and personal.

[KatDaddy]

This seems to more of the for the GOM this season. Alex and Gaston are primo examples. We front stalled across the warm GOM waters may lead to developement yet. Sure its few and few between.