Tropics really hopping. Watch out Long Island & New Eng

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the latest shows 3 tropical systems of note in the Atlantic Basin. The most recent development was the formation of tropical storm Hermine over the north central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Hermine is centered about 325 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Hermine is moving towards the northwest at near 10 mph. A turn towards the north is expected during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to strengthen to strong tropical storm status during the next 24 hours. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb or 29.77 inches.

Latest track takes the center of Tropical Storm Hermine towards east central Long Island by sometime on Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds sustained to 40-50 mph with gusts of 60-65 mph are possible along the shores of Long Island by later Tuesday. Tropical storm watches maybe neccessary later Monday for parts of Long Island as well as the coastal areas of southern New England and adjacent coastal waters. Folks living on Long Island and southern New England need to closely monitor the progress of these system through Tuesday night. Also folks down the coast into the Mid Atlantic are encouraged to monitor the progress of Gaston and also our newly formed tropical storm Hermine as heavy rains could occur into the Mid Atlantic as well as blustery winds Monday into Monday night.

Now the real question is how can Hermine track north while the remants of Gaston tracks over the same area at virtually the same time?? It will all have to do with the fact a frontal boundary is approaching the major cities of the northeast. As a result of that approaching front and the timing of both a weakening Tropical Storm Gaston and a strengthening tropical storm Hermine, we will likely see all three systems interact with each other late Monday into Tuesday near central long Island and into New England. As a result of that, gusty winds will likely be felt throughout not only Long Island, but across southern New England and adjacent coastal waters. Winds could be sustained at 40-50 mph with gusts into the 60s. This will create dangerous rip currents for the coastal areas of Long Island and into New England. Heavy rain totals of 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts is also a possibility with this pair of storm systems.

For folks wondering how this could affect the Republican National Convention, expect wet and gusty conditions in NYC Monday night into Tuesday. However the worse of this should stay just east of the city out over Long Island as the projected path keeps the worse of these systems just east of the city. However NYC could still see heavy rain totals over 1-3 inches in spots with local flooding a good possibility. Once again tropical storm watches and or gale conditons will likely be needed for parts of Long Island and into New England's coast Monday night through Tuesday.

Meanwhile we got ourselves a very dangerous hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. Dangerous Category 4 hurricane Frances continues to show a symmetric shape with the eye right in the middle of the central dense overcast. Outflow remains excellent in all quadrants. However the eye of Frances appears to be contracting. This maybe due to an eyewall replacement cycle, which will likely continue throughout the evening. Hence fluctuations in intensity is likely with Frances through tonight. At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Frances was centered near latitude 18.8 north, longitude 55.6 west or about 495 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Movement is towards the west northwest at near 9 mph and expect this mption to continue. On this track, expect tropical storm force winds across the northern Leeward Islands and possibly into parts of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as the center of Frances passes just north of these islands. A tropical storm watch is not in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure as observed by recon was 949 mb or 28.02 inches. The projected path takes Frances north of the Lesser Antillies and Puerto Rico through midweek. Then Frances is progged to track through the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas. All interests in the Bahamas and also along the southeast U.S. coast are encouraged to vigilantly monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info

[daisy25]

Us in Southern New England are watching it carefully. They where talking about gaston and hermine possiably merging together of the south coast of Rhode Island. That is what the NECN met said tonight. Daisy

[johnnytsunami]

HA! I better get those jars available so I can save 'hurricane wind' and
rain and sell them on EBAY! Though it better get here by Tues.
because I leave Long Island for good, then drive down to FL. My current itinerary is to be in Savannah 9/4-5 and St. Augustine 9/5-6 then Miami the 6th-8th, just in time for Frances I wasn't intending on being near such a hurricane, but that was my itinerary as of a couple weeks ago. timing NOT GOOD!

Does anyone know of any towns on significantly higher ground near St. Augustine??? I need to make some alternate plans, and will monitor this board and NHC and the model runs to hopefully evacuate at least 12 hours before everyone else tries to if need be My sister will be with me from Charleston through Savannah and St. Augustine and I don't think she would share my sense of adventure should I even try to position myself somewhere on the outskirts of Frances. Trying to fly out of MCO for her on the 6th could be interesting too. Man I wish I could take back my vacation plans at this point.

John