NHC forecast track error for Frances
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MGC
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NHC forecast track error for Frances
Just a quick note, Frances is running south of the NHC 48 hour forecast track by nearly a degree. Still within the cone but on the south side. On 8-27 Frances was forecast to be at 19.7N actual 18.8N. I've noticed over the years that the NHC has tended to overforecast the northern component of the track. The most notable example that directly effected me was Georges back in 1998. NHC kept forecasting Georges to start moving north, recurving east of Florida. Georges ended up hitting Mississippi. Yesterday the NHC forecast Frances at 5pm to be near 20.5 North. No way Frances makes it that far north.....MGC
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