In for another Flip Flop

[Windtalker]

Latest indications assume that Frances is moving faster now. If this is the case expect to see all the Models track her South across Fl and into the Gulf of Mexico with an earlier arrival of sometime on Thursday.

[btsgmdad]

These models flip flop more often than certain Presidential candidates!

[cape_escape]

NOOOOO!!!!! Slow down Frances!!!!

[Steve H.]

What reasoning do you have for making such an assumption. As of 8am she's moving at 9mph. Yes I agree that forward speed should inrease some. But that doesn't necessarily dictate direction.

[caneman]

What reasoning do you have for making such an assumption. As of 8am she's moving at 9mph. Yes I agree that forward speed should inrease some. But that doesn't necessarily dictate direction.

See my post - steve.

[x-y-no]

What reasoning do you have for making such an assumption. As of 8am she's moving at 9mph. Yes I agree that forward speed should inrease some. But that doesn't necessarily dictate direction.

It's a question of how far west she gets before the trough can start influencing her.

It seems to me that the main reason the model tracks have shifted right is because they've been getting slower and slower for the last few runs.

[soonertwister]

Actually Frances is coming into line with previous forecasting of increased forward speed as a result of the influence of the Atlantic ridge. There is nothing strange at work here.

But while the majority of models upon which NHC relies are showing the hurricane in relatively the same position in five days, those models have in fact over the last few cycles shown Frances going more westerly longer while moving slower, and recurving more sharply across model runs.

While I'm not sure why that is happening, nobody in Florida should drop their guard. Hurricanes can speed up, miss the center of the 5-day position dramatically, and undergo rapid or explosive intensification cycles.

The models are looking more and more toward a more northerly landfall, but it is still far to premature to begin to assume that if you live anywhere in south or east Florida, that you somehow don't have the responsibility to take the appropriate actions to protect life and property.

Two more days will make a huge difference here. In 48 hours we will have entered a much more reliable 3-day forecast period, and at that time people will know much more about whether or not they are at risk.

But as we saw with Charley, a hurricane is not a point, and all those who fall within the cone of the potential projected path as published by NHC should remember that they are potentially at risk, and act responsibly on the basis of that information. Right now that 5-day cone includes virtually all of Florida outside the panhandle, including the keys. Persons in those areas should bring their preparations up to date over the next three days.

[Air Force Met]

What reasoning do you have for making such an assumption. As of 8am she's moving at 9mph. Yes I agree that forward speed should inrease some. But that doesn't necessarily dictate direction.

Actually...since 7z it has moved at about 11 kts...which is almost 13 mph. Over the last 2 hours..it has moved at almost 14 kts. It's moved 42 NM in 3 hours. So...it has picked up some speed.

[chris_fit]

What reasoning do you have for making such an assumption. As of 8am she's moving at 9mph. Yes I agree that forward speed should inrease some. But that doesn't necessarily dictate direction.

Actually...since 7z it has moved at about 11 kts...which is almost 13 mph. Ove the last 2 hours..it has moved at almost 14 kts. It's moved 42 NM in 3 hours. So...it has picked up some speed.

Good to hear fromy you AFM....

What are your thoughts on the northerly turn that the NHC is forecasting?

[golter]

Would forward speed help the norther turn, since the ridge would not have time to rebuild once Gaston and Hermine move out?

[Air Force Met]

What are your thoughts on the northerly turn that the NHC is forecasting?

Well...I think the turn will happen...it is a matter of timing. Any turn towards the NW will probably occur after 72 hours...but if the forward speed has increased...and stays like that...then that turn will happen a little further west...which puts south Fl into play again. I think it will slow down as it turns...but the question is how fast does it move from now until then?

I did a streamline of the 300-400mb layer and it is embedded in some good easterly flow right now...and that seems to hold for the next 48 hours or so. Who knows?

As Avila (NHC) once said during a METCON..."Only God knows where hurricane goes..."

[Air Force Met]

Would forward speed help the norther turn, since the ridge would not have time to rebuild once Gaston and Hermine move out?

Nope. Gaston and Hermmy are already on the west side of the ridge. They will be outta here in 24-36 hours. As we have been saying (the mets and some others)...these two are not going to be...or never where...a factor.

the key is the forward speed. It's all about timing now. Things will happen...like a weakness in the ridge...and it looks as if those times are also set in stone...give or take 12 hours...but an increase of 3-5 kts in forward speed makes a HUGE difference 96 hours from now.

[logybogy]

Yes, 3-5 kt increase in forward speed is very bad.

It is the difference between this turning north over water and turning north over the florida peninsula!

I see a really bad scenarios developing.

This thing making landfall or brushing against the coast of all the major population centers of south and central florida.

It could go in at miami and go right up the coast to ft. lauderdale, west palm. port st. lucie, melbourne, daytona, etc.

Talk about damage if this thing has a large wind field and is a Cat 5. It would be unimaginable.