Frances appears to be moving at 20 mph

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caneman

Frances appears to be moving at 20 mph

#1 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:03 pm

Should reach NHC 12 hour projection in 6 hours. Unless there is a slow down forecasted. NHC seems to be too slow with this.
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#2 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:04 pm

how do you calculate 20mph?
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#3 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:07 pm

thats a bad sign for fla
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:09 pm

Very bad risk for Florida if she speeds up substantially.
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#5 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:25 pm

She is becoming a Earl if she speeds up!
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#6 Postby cape_escape » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:29 pm

Matthew5 wrote:She is becoming a Earl if she speeds up!



That's a good thing, right? Cause Earl had to die....
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:29 pm

We'll have an intermediate advisory soon. Looks like she's accellerated a bit more, but not that much IMHO.
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#8 Postby mascpa » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:31 pm

I don't understand the compariosn between Earl and Frances. Please explain. Thanks!
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Matthew5

#9 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:32 pm

Earl moved at 25 mph which caused shear then the cirulation fall apart. We will have to see if Frances moves faster that might cause shear?
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caneman

#10 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:36 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Earl moved at 25 mph which caused shear then the cirulation fall apart. We will have to see if Frances moves faster that might cause shear?


Yeah, Frances isn't moving too fast but definitley think it is going in the 15mph to 20mph range.
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#11 Postby Stormchaser16 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:38 pm

HORRIBLE analogy between earl and frances......

Earl was an ill defined system trying to get a circulation going, and at 25 MPH it is hard to close that circulation off. Frances is a very well defined tropical system, and its circulation is already well intact and is going nowhere, the forward acceleartion would have little or no affect on it maintaining a circulation.
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#12 Postby cape_escape » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:39 pm

But, wasn't Charley a fast mover too?
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Frances is NOT going to fall apart

#13 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:39 pm

The synoptic situation is radically different with Frances than with Earl. Earl was a very weak TD/TS. Frances is a 120-mph hurricane. In addition, the steering flow at all levels of the atmosphere appears to be aligned. This is a deep layer ridge with easterly steering flow at all levels of the atmosphere.

In my opinion, there is no way that she will experience an Earl-like meltdown. In addition, her forward speed should start slowing a day or so out.
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caneman

Re: Frances is NOT going to fall apart

#14 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:00 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:The synoptic situation is radically different with Frances than with Earl. Earl was a very weak TD/TS. Frances is a 120-mph hurricane. In addition, the steering flow at all levels of the atmosphere appears to be aligned. This is a deep layer ridge with easterly steering flow at all levels of the atmosphere.

In my opinion, there is no way that she will experience an Earl-like meltdown. In addition, her forward speed should start slowing a day or so out.


15 to 20 mph isn't too fast for a developed system. Charley was moving at 20 mph.
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#15 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:04 pm

The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.
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#16 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:05 pm

She is chugging right along. Tomorrow is going to be an exciting day - the 72 hour envelope!
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caneman

#17 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.



that isn't still. I believe we wnet from 9 to 14 mph within just just a few advisories from 5AM. I wouldn't be surprised at 5 the speed goes up again.
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#18 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:23 pm

caneman wrote:
x-y-no wrote:The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.



that isn't still. I believe we wnet from 9 to 14 mph within just just a few advisories from 5AM. I wouldn't be surprised at 5 the speed goes up again.


OK, whatever. The 11AM said 13mph and expected to accellerate slightly.

My point was that she's "still" nowhere near 20mph.
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caneman

#19 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:28 pm

x-y-no wrote:
caneman wrote:
x-y-no wrote:The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.



that isn't still. I believe we wnet from 9 to 14 mph within just just a few advisories from 5AM. I wouldn't be surprised at 5 the speed goes up again.


OK, whatever. The 11AM said 13mph and expected to accellerate slightly.

My point was that she's "still" nowhere near 20mph.



My posts all day long have said between 15 and 20. I believe NHC is just stair stepping the speed. Don't believe it? Go back to previous advisories and the system has been arriving at 6 hours instead of 12. That is the point. It is moving faster. Why do you think the models are showing it between Jacksonville and the Cape?
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#20 Postby tallywx » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:28 pm

Nope. Between 1515z and 1715z, according to GOES satellite fixes of the eye, Frances moved from 19.31N, 58.83W to 19.35N, 59.22W. That means it moved 25.56 miles in two hours, or about 13 mph.
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