NWS Melbourne

[DESTRUCTION5]

Scary MOFO's..

FRI-SUN...00Z GFDL AND GFS BEGINNING TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE NORTH OF FRANCES AND A TURN TO THE NW EAST OF THE AREA NEAR 77
DEGREES WEST BY SAT. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND CANADIAN
KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
TWD JUPITER INLET AND THE FL KEYS RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z GFS HAD THE
BENEFIT OF 43 ADDITIONAL DROPSONDES ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH SHOULD
HAVE HELPED THE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND FRANCES.
FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STILL WITHIN THE 325 TO
400 NM ERROR CONE AT THIS TIME RANGE AND THERE IS STILL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WHEN FRANCES WILL MAKE A TURN (AND TO WHAT DEGREE). THAT
SAID...ALL PERSONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. THANKS FOR COORD
MIA/TBW/HPC