Northern Cuba

[tailgater]

I'm strictly a novice so don't take this to heart, I was looking at UW site at the steering layer winds and can't see why northern Cuba is not being mentioned as possible land fall location, some help from this board's fine patrons would be helpful. THANKS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[bayouwxman]

One thing you have to remember is that those are CURRENT steering winds, not forecasts. Since the atmosphere is always changing/evolving, those steering maps will gradually change over the coming days.

The reason you're seeing the forecasts the way they are right now is the expected EVOLUTION of the steering winds. The western periphery of the ridge is expected to weaken a bit. It's just a question of when/how soon and whether the models really have a handle on its strength.

[tailgater]

I agree, but don't see what's gonna weaken it, looks like ridge is building west. Is there another trough forecast to drop down in this region because I thought it was just following the weakness left by Gaston. thanks for your input.