New Forecast... farther south

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:37 pm

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Canehater · #2 Postby **Canehater** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:43 pm

Good god I don't know how much more of this yo yo I can take. It is wearing me out. So if the hurricane were to make landfall exactly where it is predicted would I(west of Ft Ladu)suffer any damage or lose power for a long time? I just wish it would be over already. When are we going to have a relatively certain idea of this blasted storms landfall???

rainstorm · #3 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:02 pm

thanks for the hard work, derek. i am praying for you and everyone in fla

rtd2 · #4 Postby **rtd2** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:08 pm

Ive been SFLA. then Maybe GOMEX FOR 2 days(pat on back) :lol:

JMGNole · #5 Postby **JMGNole** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:09 pm

Thanks from me as well. If you're right, you could be in for a rough ride.
Take care of yourself and while I understand your job and what it entails, there is a time to run for cover.

I'm in Tally and worried that this thing might roll across, hit the GOM come alive again. Then take a hard right, and maybe come see me. I'm not digging that plan.

Like I told my kid, who just got home from Baghdad, keep your head down.

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:11 pm

We have been consistent with central florida

graphics now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

spaceisland · #7 Postby **spaceisland** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:16 pm

Students in Brevard County were being told by their teachers "not to worry, it's going to Jacksonville" all day today. I heard it from my high school daughter... and even from my wife who works at the district office. Fortunately, she is smart enough to know that things change...(and tried to tell her co-workers) and sure enough, at 5 PM the path is back to impact in Brevard County!

Apparently the loca news channels...like channel 13, were statng it pretty firmly. One radio station (which I listened to at lunch time) essentially gave Melbourne an "all clear!" I almost lost my lunch.

As a science teacher, I am continually amazed at the profound ignorance of so many of my fellow human beings!

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:20 pm

Based on the way things have been going I would believe that the forecast will be shifted north again.

#9 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:We have been consistent with central florida

graphics now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

I think you might need to shift your track even further south.

#10 Postby **KBBOCA** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:22 pm

Yeah, my brother in West Palm Beach e-mailed me after the 11 a.m. update and said "Frances is going to Jacksonville' .... AAARRRRGGGGHHHH!

betsy65freddy79 · #11 Postby **betsy65freddy79** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:25 pm

So glad I found this site again!!! Thanks to all of you who spend so much time studying this to keep us updated. Feel like I'm on a roller-coaster here in WPB area! What is the consensus that this will be landfalling further north of my area? Been through 2 Cat 3's and 1 Cat 2 - don't want to add a Cat 5!

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:11 pm

I've spent the last 45 minutes discussiing the dynamics of the atmosphere and how it will affect the hurricane and there is absolutely nothing that will cause me to shift the track farther south now. A class in atmospheric dynamics will help to realize why the models are doing what theya re and how and why they are resolving the features the way they are

Crankin · #13 Postby **Crankin** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:15 pm

Derek, you just shifted it south. Do you mean you won't shift it north, or is it my failure to understand?

B-Bear · #14 Postby **B-Bear** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:18 pm

Yeah. I'm confused too. Earlier you said you might shift it even further south later, and possibly into the Gulf.

mobilebay · #15 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:24 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Very good job Derek. I agree 100%. I hve thought that the models where way to far north. I think the NHC believes this too, because they refused to drasticly alter there track to the right.

Derek Ortt · #16 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:26 pm

the forecast that I have appears to be the best one based upon the dynamics that are currently unfolding and I do not forsee a further southward adjustment in the near future, although not much of a northward one though, stay tuned for the 11, I'll explain more then

kmanWX · #17 Postby **kmanWX** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I've spent the last 45 minutes discussiing the dynamics of the atmosphere and how it will affect the hurricane and there is absolutely nothing that will cause me to shift the track farther south now. A class in atmospheric dynamics will help to realize why the models are doing what theya re and how and why they are resolving the features the way they are

Well exactly well phased. I can't agree any further.

kmanWX · #18 Postby **kmanWX** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:33 pm

Nice disco and map and well explain on how this storm may play out.

freeport · #19 Postby **freeport** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:36 pm

Any support for the two models that show this thing going further north : ie: carolinas ?

mobilebay · #20 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the forecast that I have appears to be the best one based upon the dynamics that are currently unfolding and I do not forsee a further southward adjustment in the near future, although not much of a northward one though, stay tuned for the 11, I'll explain more then

You have confused me . Is is it fish or cut bait. First you said the track maybe moved more south, the 2 hours later you go completely oppisite. :roll:

New Forecast... farther south

New Forecast... farther south

NO yoyo here

Re: New Forecast... farther south

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