Forecast #16

[Derek Ortt]

alright, let the criticism begin for this one... I'll be back in about an hour

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[LowMug]

Looks like a page taken directly out of the 5pm NHC Forecast Track

How can a forecast and the explanations that went along with it completely change in the span of 4 hours...

If this is true it stays out of the Gulf (which is good) ... 4 hours ago a high was building and GOM was looking likely...

Somebody else please flip the coin

Where is NCWEATHERWIZARD ... at least he is mostly consistent

[Javlin]

Well Derek understood it all till you got to the part about a zonal troff over the GC.ULL weakening>Frances W,high building Frances W.Explain the Zonal troff if you could.thanks
Kevin

[NFLnut]

Okay. I need to throw in the "I'm An Idiot" flag on the field.

I keep seeing you guys mention a "ULL." Just what is a "ULL ?"

Thanks

[ColinD]

Looks like a page taken directly out of the 5pm NHC Forecast Track

How can a forecast and the explanations that went along with it completely change in the span of 4 hours...

If this is true it stays out of the Gulf (which is good) ... 4 hours ago a high was building and GOM was looking likely...

Somebody else please flip the coin

Where is NCWEATHERWIZARD ... at least he is mostly consistent

I disagree. Derek's been pretty consistent for days. By way of reference he's been much more consistent than any computer model with the exception of the EMWCF. He's had a basic theme and stuck with it.

[ColinD]

Okay. I need to throw in the "I'm An Idiot" flag on the field.

I keep seeing you guys mention a "ULL." Just what is a "ULL ?"

Thanks

Upper level low. Check out the rotation in the western Bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matthew5]

A upper level low pressure or "ULL" They are in the upper Atmosphere around the 500 millibars or below. They are cold core which means colder inside then the outside enviroment. In can be to the northwest of the low level low on a extratropical cyclone. What else do you went to know?

[kevin]

Derek is top notch and I hope some twits don't lash out.

[HURAKAN]

NFLnut, "ULL" stands for "Upper Level Low". Basically is a low pressure that forms in the upper part of our atmosphere, and consider to be family of the extratropical lows.

[Brent]

Good forecast.

[Stormcenter]

Derek is top notch and I hope some twits don't lash out.

Are you Derek's brother? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[x-y-no]

Looks like a page taken directly out of the 5pm NHC Forecast Track

How can a forecast and the explanations that went along with it completely change in the span of 4 hours...

If this is true it stays out of the Gulf (which is good) ... 4 hours ago a high was building and GOM was looking likely...

Somebody else please flip the coin

Where is NCWEATHERWIZARD ... at least he is mostly consistent

Huh???

This track is almost identical to his last two ...

And from the text it seems to me he wants to shift to the left but is waiting for the new model runs before deciding to do so.

[kevin]

Derek is a graduate student at the University of Miami. He's taken on the hobby of forecasting all the tropical systems in the atlantic and east pacific. Quite a workload. Like I said, top notch.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm paid as a staff member (for this week, paid to forecast which is obvious), not as a grad student at RSMAS

[AL Chili Pepper]

Wow, this is getting good. All kinds of variables to work with. Keep up the good work Derek and stay clear in Miami.

And....keep it out of the Gulf!