How reliable is ETA???

[FritzPaul]

I just looked at the 6z run for ETA... It looks scary for interests in the GoM.

[wsquared77]

Do you have a link?

[FritzPaul]

Here's the link to the site:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Note: There's a bunch of model choices, but ETA is the only one out for 6Z.

[stu]

ETA can be found here

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/i ... ?model=eta

[wsquared77]

I have no idea on reliability but we live in homestead and that scenario would be devestating. When can we expect updates on other models? (You'll have to forgive the stupid questions...I'm new to all this!)

[FritzPaul]

I just found this link 2 days ago. They put the new info for each model independently, so you have to check back a lot for the latest runs or wait a few hours for all the data. You can judge the model sets by the numbers on the left (Don't forget to refresh your browser to get the latest info)The numbers show the date + the time of the run.

Ex: 2004090106 == Sep. 1, 2004 @ 06z time

Hope this helps, Paul

[wsquared77]

Thanks for the information! It's interesting to learn all this new stuff. I just wish it was under other circumstances!

[wxman57]

The ETA is NOT a hurricane model. In fact, it's quite poor with tropical systems. It should generally be ignored.

[Sirocco]

GFS (AVN) does a better job at tropical systems than the ETA, if your inclined to use national numerical models to forecast hurricane paths.



Otherwise, most people use tropical and global models to get a tropical system trajectory or vector.



http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

What I prefer is to use them all and get a consensus (GUNA and GUNS are consensus models).



Looks like someone better wake up Mickey in Orlando and he can take his friends out of Melbourne too.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml