NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040901 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040901 1200 040902 0000 040902 1200 040903 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 69.1W 22.3N 71.3W 23.3N 73.0W 24.2N 74.2W
BAMM 21.4N 69.1W 22.2N 71.1W 23.1N 72.8W 24.0N 74.1W
A98E 21.4N 69.1W 22.1N 71.7W 23.2N 73.9W 24.3N 75.8W
LBAR 21.4N 69.1W 22.4N 71.5W 23.4N 73.6W 24.2N 75.5W
SHIP 120KTS 123KTS 127KTS 129KTS
DSHP 120KTS 123KTS 127KTS 129KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040903 1200 040904 1200 040905 1200 040906 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 75.1W 25.9N 76.8W 27.2N 78.3W 29.9N 80.2W
BAMM 24.8N 75.2W 26.1N 77.3W 26.9N 79.2W 28.6N 80.8W
A98E 24.9N 77.8W 24.1N 81.7W 20.3N 84.0W 16.4N 84.5W
LBAR 25.1N 77.6W 26.7N 81.3W 28.6N 84.3W 30.8N 86.2W
SHIP 127KTS 120KTS 110KTS 95KTS
DSHP 127KTS 120KTS 41KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 69.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 937MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM
LBAR has 2 landfalls and the others further north.
12:00 Models=Diversity between LBAR,BAMM ans BAMD
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cycloneye
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12:00 Models=Diversity between LBAR,BAMM ans BAMD
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logybogy
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cycloneye
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MWatkins said something yesterday in the broadcast about models being corrupted but I hope that he posts about those technnical things that he knows.
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The most northerly landfall among those four was at Jacksonvielle.-
BayouVenteux
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logybogy wrote:Could this be more bad corrupted data?
Someone please tell me what is turning this thing north? I just don't see it.
Here's one explaination, according to Larry Cosgrove at WXAMERICA...
1.The GFS sees Frances connecting with the fading front that stretches from coastal LA to the NC OBX.
2.Frances should follow the path of least resistance during the next 72 hrs: more NW than W, and slow as the subtropical high weakens and gives way to the cP regime that will spread S'ward down the coast.
3.When the polar anticyclone takes over, Frances heads W again on Fri night into Sat. Then the weakness in the south gets pushed east by the digging trough, and Frances gets back to a N to NW motion.
He still calls for a swipe at the N Fla coast with a historic GA landfall, around Brunswick.
Tall order, IMHO.
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