To follow NHC track, it has to turn NW now!

[HollynLA]

If you look at most of the models and NHC's track, it would have to start going NW as of now, otherwise it will be even further south. Any thoughts on this?

[HURAKAN]

Frances has continued a WNW track since last night and now looks to be pointing to South Florida. As you said, it has to move NOW NW to miss South Florida, if not. WE ARE IN BIG, BIG, BIG TROUBLE!!!

[HollynLA]

Actually, it would have to move NW now to hit northern FL, I don't see any indication of a more northern movement at all, it's been steady WWNW since yesteray.

[kevin]

The turn will be gradual. NHC is saying motion of 290, before it was 285, before that it was 280, and before that 275. Notice the trend, it will make landfall I think around Vero Beach.

[HollynLA]

I'm thinking landfall around Miami (sorry guys) or possibly even more south. Although, the wind field is large enough that almost ALL the souther FL east coast will feel it. It's time to get serious folks!

[rtd2]

"NHC is saying motion of 290, before it was 285, before that it was 280, and before that 275. Notice the trend, it will make landfall I think around Vero Beach."







LOOK for that to GRADUALLY CHANGE SOUTH TOO.

[Air Force Met]

It really has to turn NW by 21Z today. The overall motion b/w 21z today and 9z tomorrow is at 300 according to the track. So...if it is not moving at 300 sometime this evening..the track will need to be shifted south by the 03z advisory.

Today is the key.

[yoda]

Yes, today is the CRITICAL day.

[golter]

NHC track at 5:00 am had Frances crossing 70W & 21.8, same thing at 11:00am, and reaching 22N at 70.5W. It appears to be right on track. A bee line NW of where it is now would be just south of Charleston SC.

[B-Bear]

NHC track at 5:00 am had Frances crossing 70W & 21.8 and reaching 22N at 70.5W. It appears to be right on track. A bee line NW of where it is now would be just south of Charleston SC.

Still calling a Carolina landfall, eh?

[btsgmdad]

Let's look at the SAT image. Over the past few hours it has definitely stayed more at a 280-285 heading. There are occasional NW wobbles but for the most part the track has been just N of due W.

[B-Bear]

It is definitely moving more west than NHC has it forecast to initially, so if this continues I expect them to adjust their forecast track further south yet.

[golter]

NHC track at 5:00 am had Frances crossing 70W & 21.8 and reaching 22N at 70.5W. It appears to be right on track. A bee line NW of where it is now would be just south of Charleston SC.

Still calling a Carolina landfall, eh?

No, my point was it doesnt need to turn NW now, to be on track. but, A NW track turn now would put it on Carolina coast.

[rbaker]

i believe the 75 long line will be the key, because even if it bends wnw to nw it will be too late to avoid the fla coast line from mlb north. If it is to hit nc it would have to start its 300 degree turn now, because it's not going to do its typical recurve from w to wnw to nw and north, so this 5 degrees of long is critical to say the least.