11PM Discussion

[weatherFrEaK]

375
WTNT41 KNHC 020225
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR
EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS
HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE
18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z
ADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL
TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR AND WITHIN THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
ALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT
FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...
WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.6W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.8N 77.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 26.6N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 33.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND

[dhweather]

I'm glad someone else saw/sees the high near 30/75

[LowMug]

Holy $hit...

The ridge finally has verified...and Mr. Ortt has been right (shall I say left) the entire time...well done sir with respects to your forecasting...but not pleased with the overall impact it may have on me...

To the Carolina people I disagree with to those in Carolina who didn't want this and to the rest of us to the west

[PurdueWx80]

That is one of the best and most informative forecast discussions I have ever read. Unfortunately, it doesn't bode well for Florida. I really wish every forecaster there had the insight and ability to write as well as him. With the GFS's heights being that low, I'm almost certain they will readjust west w/ the new data. Actually, the 00Z run may not be so dramatic since it will be a blend of new observations and the old run.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Not good for Florida. Look for some more model shifts later tonight. Frances will soon be getting close enough to Florida that any weakening of the ridge had better commence in a formidable fashion. Looks like Cangialosi might have nailed it.

[Ixolib]

That is one of the best and most informative forecast discussions I have ever read. Unfortunately, it doesn't bode well for Florida. I really wish every forecaster there had the insight and ability to write as well as him. With the GFS's heights being that low, I'm almost certain they will readjust west w/ the new data. Actually, the 00Z run may not be so dramatic since it will be a blend of new observations and the old run.

And with the ridge holding, does that change the implications for the GOM?

[caneman]

Not good for Florida. Look for some more model shifts later tonight. Frances will soon be getting close enough to Florida that any weakening of the ridge had better commence in a formidable fashion. Looks like Cangialosi might have nailed it.

Looking like more and more W.Palm over to Tampa. Not happ at all. And I don't see the slow down. So the swath of damage may extend the whole width of the state, Charley took out 100 miles North and now it looks like Frances wants to take out 100 or so miles West.

[CFL]

My hunch is that this could mean bad news for us on the northern Gulf Coast.

[UpTheCreek]

I must admit to being a bit of a wishcaster but this hurricane is very frightening.

Having just become a father for the first time this afternoon, I believe I'd like to take a pass on this particular 'cane, at least this time around. I do believe it to be a Florida landfall and I wish those of you in it's path Godspeed, our prayers are with you.

[dhweather]

That is one of the best and most informative forecast discussions I have ever read. Unfortunately, it doesn't bode well for Florida. I really wish every forecaster there had the insight and ability to write as well as him. With the GFS's heights being that low, I'm almost certain they will readjust west w/ the new data. Actually, the 00Z run may not be so dramatic since it will be a blend of new observations and the old run.

Indeed, and exceptional discussion.

Kudos to the NHC, they are handling this about as well as anyone could, given all the variables and pressure from media, govt, etc.

[weatherFrEaK]

Could very well have implications for the Gulf.

[wjs3]

Stewart rocks...I love his discussions every night. Glad to see others feel the same way.

He gives the best description of the synoptic situation...I like that because I understnad the WHY of his forecasts--beyond what the models say

[dhweather]

My hunch is that this could mean bad news for us on the northern Gulf Coast.

Yeah, and that stinky paper plant in Cantonment.

Yes, I've been in your neck of the woods many times.

[Dean4Storms]

It's about freakin time. Maybe this will quiet the disagreements. This baby is headed for Florida and south Florida at that. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of a turn to the west come tomorrow as this ridge gets squeezed.

[wxman57]

A 290-295 deg track for the present location could mean landfall a bit farther south, perhaps Palm Beach. That would not be good at all for Florida, as there's much more to damage down there. It could also mean a track toward Tampa then across the extreme NE Gulf to the eastern Panhandle.

[piedmontnc]

Congrats to you, and I also pray that everyone in the path of this storm, wherever that may be stays safe.

[scogor]

News can't get much worse. Prayers to all of my fellow boarders on the east coast and looks like we'll need some prayers over here in Tampa Bay, too!!

[Innotech]

looks less likely that I will have to eat a piece of paper as I promised if it landfalls north in the Carolinas

A lot of times, you just have to swallow your pride and admit when youre wrong. If, at the end of this, Frances does something bizarre, Ill gladly eat that paper still. Ill also admit I did once have a prediction for the Carolinas, back when Gaston and Hermine were in the picture. that has obviously changed drastically and my second forecast has been for Central Florida and has not changed. I am no professional, but using the models and some basic knowledge of steering mechanisms and setups, I think anyone can predict the movement of a storm to a reasonable degree. Thats no guarantee youll be right, but being wrong is how you learn. Ive been wrong plenty times, especially with Charley. Its not an exact Science at all. I think people should have fun with it, but try not to wishcast so much. IF a storm isnt coming for you, it just isnt. dont try to bend natures rules to fit your agenda. It ends up being dangerous for those who are coming to forums looking for legitimate information and opinions. To all of you in Florida, good luck, and Ill be praying for you.

[caneman]

looks less likely that I will have to eat a piece of paper as I promised if it landfalls north in the Carolinas

A lot of itmes, you just have to swallow your pride and admit when youre wrong. If, at hte end of htis, Frances does something bizarre, Ill gladly eat that papaer still. Ill also admit I did once have a preidciton for hte Caorlinas, back when Gaston and Hermine were in the picture. that has obviously changed drastically and my second forecast has been for Central Florida and has not changed. I am no professional, but using the models and some basic knowledge of steering mechanisms and setups, I htink anyone can predict hte movement of a storm to a reasonable degree. Thats no guarantee youll be irght, but being wrong is how you learn. Ive been wrong plenty times, especially with Charley. Its not an exact Science at all. I htink people should have fun with it, but try not to wishcast so much. IF a storm isnt coming for you, it just isnt. dont try to bend natures rules to fit your agenda. It ends up being dangerous for those who are coming to forums looking for legitimate informaiton and opinions. To all of you in Florida, good luck, and Ill be praying for you.

yep, you did a good job.

[Innotech]

looks less likely that I will have to eat a piece of paper as I promised if it landfalls north in the Carolinas

A lot of itmes, you just have to swallow your pride and admit when youre wrong. If, at hte end of htis, Frances does something bizarre, Ill gladly eat that papaer still. Ill also admit I did once have a preidciton for hte Caorlinas, back when Gaston and Hermine were in the picture. that has obviously changed drastically and my second forecast has been for Central Florida and has not changed. I am no professional, but using the models and some basic knowledge of steering mechanisms and setups, I htink anyone can predict hte movement of a storm to a reasonable degree. Thats no guarantee youll be irght, but being wrong is how you learn. Ive been wrong plenty times, especially with Charley. Its not an exact Science at all. I htink people should have fun with it, but try not to wishcast so much. IF a storm isnt coming for you, it just isnt. dont try to bend natures rules to fit your agenda. It ends up being dangerous for those who are coming to forums looking for legitimate informaiton and opinions. To all of you in Florida, good luck, and Ill be praying for you.

yep, you did a good job.

I apologize, my typing leaves something to be desired. I can spell, but I cant hit the right keys