Comments on the Atlantic (02.09.2004, 1817 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

R 02.09.2004 (THU SEP 02 2004)
1817 UTC (01:17 PM CDT)


HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)

My forecast of Frances has verified exceptionally well in terms of track and strength to this point. Right now, however, Frances is undergoing another one of numerous apparent eyewall replacement cycles. Strength forecast: As Frances approaches the coast of FL, it will be going through more humid air and exceptionally warm SSTs. This should cause Frances to strenghten greatly after the current ERC. See below for a more in-depth wind intensity forecast. Position Forecast: Frances continues moving in a WNW direction under a strengthening Bermuda High Pressure system. This should cause Frances to continue in a WNW direction, along with several wobbles NW and W due to directional instability by the wind. There is a chance that Frances could turn W or NW near or after landfall depending upon how long the Bermuda High strengthens. I expect a general WNW motion into the Gulf of Mexico with an exit somewhere between Punta Gorda and Sarasota. Afterwards, expect Frances to maintain her strength (slight strengthening possible after a while in the GOM) and a possible landfall between NEW ORLEANS, LA and ST MARKS, FL. Note that it is possible for the track to vary and any shift in direction could result in a track up the Florida Peninsula or FL W Coast.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL: 125 KT*
NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE: 125 KT*
12 HR: 130 KT*
24 HR: 130 KT*
36 HR: 135 KT*
48 HR: 140 KT*
72 HR: 105 KT
96 HR: 105 KT
120 HR: 110 KT

FLORIDA EAST COAST LANDFALL PROBABILITIES BY RANK
1. PALM BEACH COUNTY.....53%
2. MARTIN COUNTY............21%
3. BROWARD COUNTY........16%
4. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.....06%
5. SAINT LUCIE COUNTY.....04%

NOTE: The Data Above represents current probability based on current track and expected conditions in the next two days. Any directional change is possible and could result in a dramatic shift of landfall probabilities.

EXPECTED TRACK AFTER FL BY PROBABILITY RANK

1. GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTH GULF COAST....74%
2. UP FLORIDA PENINSULA OR W COAST..........26%

GENERAL GULF COAST LANDFALL PROBABILITIES (OUT OF 74%)

NEW ORLEANS, LA TO PASCAGOULA, MS...........09%
PASCAGOULA, MS TO PENSACOLA, FL...............18%
PENSACOLA, FL TO APALACHICOLA, FL..............29%
APALACHICOLA, FL TO CEDAR KEY, FL...............18%


INVEST 97L

97L is currently undergoing upper level shear and will not be a tropical depression until it gets into a more favorable environment. Expect the system to continue moving to the WNW/NW.


INVEST 98L

98L is continuing to look better organized throughout the day and a tropical depression may form later tonight or sometime tomorrow as the system continues to move westward.

[rainstorm]

great info

[DoctorHurricane2003]

ADDENDUM
HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)
1857 UTC


Preparations: All preparations in the NW Bahamas should be complete. In FL, if you have not evacuated already, it will be too late to nearing 9 PM today. Preparations to protect your property should be complete....including boarding of windows, bringing in of lawn furniture and other outdoor objects, and securing of the inside of your home for potential flooding.

Storm Surge: A storm surge upwards of 20 feet can be expected in the NW Bahamas...along the coast of FL...a storm surge of 10-15 feet can be expected.

Wind Damage Expected: Extreme to Catastrophic

Suggested Evacuation Routes:
INTERSTATE 75 (ALLIGATOR ALLEY)
INTERSTATE 95
FLORIDA TURNPIKE
US HIGHWAY 1
US HIGHWAY 41
US HIGHWAY 27
US HIGHWAY 441
US HIGHWAY 98
FL HIGHWAY A1A
FL HIGHWAY 70
FL HIGHWAY 60

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