Some possible reasons for the weakening...

[Hyperstorm]

1) Eyewall replacement cycle: No surprise as this system has had quite a few of them during its lifetime.

2) Outflow restrictions on the western side of the hurricane: Although you might not think of it as significant, it does play a major role in the intensity of such strong storms. In order to have a Cat.4/5 storm you need nearly perfect outflow.

3) Derek's theory: You might be wondering what this means? Well, Derek did a project on why Hurricane Georges weakened from a very strong category 4 to a strong category 2. He can explain this in more detail to you.

Those are the only reasons I find at this time. If the pressure continues to rise regardless of the ERC, then we can scratch Reason #1 and go with the 2 and even 3.

Derek, I would appreciate if you can briefly explain to them your theory as to why Hurricane Georges weakened while east of the Lesser Antilles, when all parameters showed favorable conditions.

If this hurricane does not show a better outflow pattern before it reaches the coast, then don't expect this to be anywhere near a strong category 4 hurricane, and if that happens, it will definitely be better news for Florida...

[dennis1x1]

does this like like an erc to you? i see no signs of concentric eye walls......

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html


this is full inner core collapse.....coupled with the elongated nature of the storm she is really looking sick at this time.......