One thing y'all can count on......

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:25 am

Frances will end up pretty much where the NHC forecasts it will end up. The NHC record is darn good during the past decade and I'll stick with those predication -- give or take 100 miles.

kck70 · #2 Postby **kck70** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:27 am

100 MILES IS ALOT WITH THIS STORM... :eek:

#3 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:29 am

It's a lot, but given the unpredictability of monster storms, not so much. Anyone should be prepared to figure in the "cone" and not just the center line track.

#4 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:30 am

It is a huge storm, so 100 miles really isn't that much.

What is the distance between Tampa and Port Charlotte?

quickychick · #5 Postby **quickychick** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:35 am

Anyone should be prepared to figure in the "cone" and not just the center line track.

I've posted it before, but this is why the skeetobite graphic with the close-up map of the path and the resulting wind envelope makes me a little nervous. The average Joe will look at that and take the red line as gospel and the wind envelopes as psalms and latch on to that particular prediction with no intention of letting go. One could see a non-storm watcher going "hey, it says tropical storm force over my area, no need to go." I guess what I'm trying to say is at this 'early' in the game it might be better to be a little more vague with that kind of image.

Skeetobite please don't take this as a mean-spirited criticism. It's a beautiful graphic and even helpful to the people who know what to expect from hurricanes. But to the ones who don't, it might be a little dangerous. Just my stinky opinion.

#6 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:37 am

I heard somewhere yesterday (read and heard so many things can't remember where at this point) that Charley hit 50 miles south of where it was supposed to. So, if the NHC's error is 100 miles, that makes a HUGE difference in this state. 100 miles from me is Port St. Lucie, and isn't that where they've predicted this thing to go??????? Tell the people in Punta Gorda about the margin of error....

#7 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:58 am

Good post, Steph.

#8 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:01 am

Canelaw99 wrote:I heard somewhere yesterday (read and heard so many things can't remember where at this point) that Charley hit 50 miles south of where it was supposed to. So, if the NHC's error is 100 miles, that makes a HUGE difference in this state. 100 miles from me is Port St. Lucie, and isn't that where they've predicted this thing to go??????? Tell the people in Punta Gorda about the margin of error....

I am almost positive that Port St lucie is about 150 miles from you and about 100 miles from me. Too close for my comfort!

#9 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:14 am

I'm in Miami, not Homestead at this point, so it's a bit closer - but way too close for my comfort that's for sure!!!

ilmc172pilot · #10 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:03 pm

i'LL TRUST LANDFALL WHEN SHE MAKES LANDFALL

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:07 pm

Stephanie wrote:It is a huge storm, so 100 miles really isn't that much.

What is the distance between Tampa and Port Charlotte?

About 60-80 miles, I believe.

One thing y'all can count on......

One thing y'all can count on......

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