Good morning all...
Is Frances still able to pick up some steam before landfall or are condiftions not gonna let it? Is the shear relaxing? Is the dry air retreating?
Looks like I made have made a right call about staying here... at least for now.
Can Frances pull A Charley?
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chris_fit
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Can Frances pull A Charley?
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Reintensification is a distinct possiblity imo. Rapid reintensification is a much less likely possibility, but still a possibility. The reasoning being is first Frances needs to stop weaking and stabilize which will likely take sometime to occur. Then a slow intensification period needs to begin. The wind field will take time to wined back up. One of the major difficulities with the intensity forecast from here on out is the slow forward motion. It allows additional time for weaking or reintensification. Because of this a wide range of intensity from CAT 1-4 all have varying degrees of possibley unfolding. My thoughts for landfall intensity ATT:
CAT 3 (~125MPH) 50%
CAT 2 (~100-110MPH) 25%
CAT 4 (~140-145MPH) 20%
CAT 1 5%
To obtain my most likely intensity will only require slow but steady intensification which seems reasonalbe. If, though, Frances is slow to regroup her intensity may not change much or decrease slightly resulting in a solid CAT 2. Now, if she begins steadily improving in the near term combined with a slow approach speed the chances for significant strenghting back to CAT 4 must be considered. Finally, and to me least likely, though I may be wrong, she continues to slow become less organized and slowly but steadily weakens to a CAT 1.
JDT
CAT 3 (~125MPH) 50%
CAT 2 (~100-110MPH) 25%
CAT 4 (~140-145MPH) 20%
CAT 1 5%
To obtain my most likely intensity will only require slow but steady intensification which seems reasonalbe. If, though, Frances is slow to regroup her intensity may not change much or decrease slightly resulting in a solid CAT 2. Now, if she begins steadily improving in the near term combined with a slow approach speed the chances for significant strenghting back to CAT 4 must be considered. Finally, and to me least likely, though I may be wrong, she continues to slow become less organized and slowly but steadily weakens to a CAT 1.
JDT
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No changes for me ATT. Want to observe the current trends unfolding for a few more hours. Increasing convection on the west side, latest recon shows her holding current strength. But WV imagery still shows a slot of dry air right on her west to wsw side. If that dry air lessens or does not get entrained I believe the stabilaztion is here and future slow but steady stregthening will begin later this afternoon / evening. I would also look for the center to readjust some as she reorganizes. This may give the impression of a westward movement in the short term. I figure by the 5PM full update these current trends will show there true intentions.
JDT
JDT
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