Wind risk for Ocala/Jax report.....

[dixiebreeze]

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1143 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST.
JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...STORM INFORMATION...

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES BRINGS THE CENTER
INLAND SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA...THERE IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAINLY IN THE TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE WATCH AREA. ALL INTERESTS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA

AT 11 AM EDT...
1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...NORTHWEST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.
INTERESTS IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY WISH TO SECURE PROPERTY
WHICH COULD BE FLOODED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THOUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A NORMAL
TIDE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY TRACK DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
CIRCULATION OF FRANCES AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY A RESULT OF THE
HURRICANE.

DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AT
LANDFALL WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF FLAGLER...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. GENERAL WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 12 FEET TODAY AND TO OVER 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCROACH ON REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. AREAS ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH COULD
SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20
INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS THE STORM MOVES BY
THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT.

$$

LETRO