newbie question

[jpigott]

long time lurker first time poster - - is it my imagination or is that a giant eye that is trying to form in some of the latest long range radar loop out of miami. Please don't flame. And if it is, it looks way larger that any eye I've ever seen before

[MBryant]

I was seeing that as well...Probably not, but if it is...it would be the largest eye I've seen too.

[dennis1x1]

its the center of circulation, warm spot, lack of convection, etc etc...you are seeing.

this CAN be the first sign of a visible eye forming as the inner core process improves.

it CAN also be a very temporary feature that fills in during the next few frames.

sat pics are you looking down on the storm.....if cirrus blows over a perfect eyewall it will look like there is no eye...this isnt necessarily so.

last night no eyewall was present at all......this morning recon began reporting an "open" eyewall....not completely formed...and the latest recon report also noted this.

big thing to remember is what you see on sat while it may be representative of an eyewall is not necessarily that...they are 2 subtely different things.

[jpigott]

if for some strange reason that is an eye/eyewall forming what could that mean for intensity. Does big eye mean higer probability for strengthening. Little concerned here just N. of WPB

[dennis1x1]

well the first step in strengthening is reorganization of the inner core of the system.....this would lead to a closed eyewall forming...which would be a sign of strengthening.

now that the convection has wrapped around a defined center on sat.....it will be interesting to see if the west side is sheared off again as has been happening the last 24 hours or so.

latest SHIPS model intensity forecast has levelled off the weakening, keeps her steady for 12 hours and then intesifies after that....this may be the result of the model forecasting less shear that what is (has been?) occuring.