comments from proMets needed, steering data

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

comments from proMets needed, steering data

#1 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:55 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Look at the latest vs 3 hrs ago ( since that is about as often as we should be forcasting) Since I am NOT a met everyone just take it easy....Here is what I see happening:

The ridge to the north is giving way enough under Frances influence and flow from the west. As a result the northward component will likely come into play ahead of the model guidance and NHC track. The gradient in the winds is increasing as the trough digs more to the west of Frances.

Likelyhood of entire eyewall crossing onto land is less than 3 hours ago

I predict (NOT FORECAST) the eye continuing NW more or less on track but turning more N then NE much sooner in the track. The key is when this starts...
0 likes   

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kevin and 273 guests