Excellent update/info - Melbourne......

[dixiebreeze]

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES OFFSHORE MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES...
...HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA COAST...
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY
BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE
25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF VERO BEACH AND 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORLANDO. FRANCES IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE FRANCES HAS AFFORDED CENTRAL FLORIDIANS A LITTLE MORE TIME
TO PREPARE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WEATHER
WILL BE GOOD DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS EXTRA TIME SHOULD BE USED WISELY FOR THOSE WHO REMAIN IN
THE AREA TO COMPLETE THEIR ACTION PLANS. FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAKING THIS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. DO NOT LET THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND GOOD WEATHER
TODAY GIVE YOU A FALSE IMPRESSION THAT THE THREAT FROM FRANCES IS
LESSENING. FRANCES IS MOVING SLOWLY AND COULD MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR
MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST ON SHORT NOTICE AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN
INTENSITY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA MUST
STAY VIGILANT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MUCH GREATER FOR PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE
CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 115 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH WINDS
OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY
EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME MOBILE HOMES
EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING WAVES WILL
BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND
DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER
THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS
FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE
RAIN DEVELOPS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING
ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF
COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

[tronbunny]

Thanks!

I have been a fan of NHC forecaster Stewart.
I find this latest from our Local MLB NWS just as enlightening.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/cgi-bin/productviewer.php?product=AFDMLB&version=0

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, Stewart's the best.

[tronbunny]

MLB Hagemeyer is fast becoming our local Stewart.

Stay safe dixiebreeze.

another wobble, but we're (kissimmee/orlando) still in the bullseye.
Also note the slight increase in windspeed.

Forecast to strengthen to 120 before landfall.

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 40

Statement as of 21:00Z on September 03, 2004
<snip>
Forecast valid 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt...160ne 125se 50sw 50nw.
<snip>
next advisory at 04/0300z

forecaster Avila

"ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004
<snip>
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
<snip>
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA"

and count to 1000 when you're in line for gas, batteries, food in the days to come