Movement of Frances...

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Windfall

Movement of Frances...

#1 Postby Windfall » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:11 pm

I got a better way of tracking the motion; observing the miami radar. This radar indicates France taking a westerly course. If it stays on this path, then the broward/palm beach countyline could face landfall.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kamx.shtml
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Sanibel
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#2 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:20 pm

Satellite and radar are giving nothing as far as any turn. So, I'll stick with NHC until I see some obvious movement of the entire storm body.

I see hints of a curve west, but it isn't translating into any actual movement. I think we are seeing the High trying to turn Frances, but her massive mass was stronger than the slot high. So, a compromise of a slow down and NW track ensued.

I'm now thoroughly convinced that the dry air and shear are much worse than we realized and this storm is being slowly worn down. It isn't showing it because she was so strong that instead of blowing off like a badly-sheared storm she simply slowed and wound down...

- Off for sky observations before it pours. Back later...
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#3 Postby FritzPaul » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:27 pm

This site's radar is udated more often, and isn't getting slammed like NWS Miami radar.
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#4 Postby THead » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:31 pm

frances just isn't moving much at all.....gonna be a soaker
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:49 pm

Radar is the best indicator for track.

This storm is either slowing to a stall or shifting west towards Palm Beach as we watch. No doubt it is slowing even more...


Pretty soon we have to look for some crazy movement...
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#6 Postby Ixolib » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:15 pm

Sanibel wrote:Radar is the best indicator for track.

This storm is either slowing to a stall or shifting west towards Palm Beach as we watch. No doubt it is slowing even more...


Pretty soon we have to look for some crazy movement...


Not gonna go backwards - east - is it???
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:59 pm

Recon has indicated a quite steady WNW motion all day at 7-8 kts. You can't really see that well on radar yet because there isn't a well-defined center on radar. The storm is right on track, heading for the coast near PBI-Ft. Pierce in a little over 24hrs. It hasn't stalled.
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#8 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:03 pm

Ixolib wrote:Not gonna go backwards - east - is it???
<P>I think the Cape Verde islands are probably safe from Frances. :wink:
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#9 Postby hurricanemike » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:11 pm

its not moving W and its moving very slowly NW-NNW and is nearly stalled.
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