How long after Abaco & Grand Bahama island b/f it hits h

[siobhan222]

Forgive my complete ignorance, but after it finishes with Abaco (where it's at now) and then goes to Grand Bahama Island ... roughly how long before it hits SE Florida (assuming it's going to hit here)? Does anyone know how many miles that is and when we could expect it?

[Ixolib]

Forgive my complete ignorance, but after it finishes with Abaco (where it's at now) and then goes to Grand Bahama Island ... roughly how long before it hits SE Florida (assuming it's going to hit here)? Does anyone know how many miles that is and when we could expect it?

Just remember that "IT" is not a single event - the conditions will just continue to worsen until it's at its worst - which sometimes happens amazingly fast - then they will begin to improve. Most hurricane vets will verify this as the way things work out.

[Janie34]

Forgive my complete ignorance, but after it finishes with Abaco (where it's at now) and then goes to Grand Bahama Island ... roughly how long before it hits SE Florida (assuming it's going to hit here)? Does anyone know how many miles that is and when we could expect it?

Unfortunately that depends on when the hurricane decides to move and how rapidly. There could be some rather great variations in the time frame given the shape of the Florida coastline and the angle at which she approaches. Sorry, but its sometimes hard to be more specific when a storm like this slows to a crawl.

BTW, do I know you from elsewhere on the internet? Just curious, you seem sort of familiar to me.

[Janie34]

Just remember that "IT" is not a single event - the conditions will just continue to worsen until it's at its worst - which sometimes happens amazingly fast - then they will begin to improve. Most hurricane vets will verify this as the way things work out.

Yup, this is going to be a widespread event.

[siobhan222]

I guess I'm not asking about the eye, so much as when the bad conditions will hit.

[siobhan222]

I don't know Janie. I frequent some cat groups and some Journey groups. Do you?

[Brent]

Conditions will REALLY get bad tomorrow morning(probably between Daybreak and Noon) with the eye coming ashore sometime in the afternoon or early evening hours.

[Janie34]

Ahh, most likely not then. Just a thought.

I imagine you'll have several hours yet before it really goes downhill. Keep in mind though that tropical storm force winds are now starting to brush the coastline. Those winds can certainly cause some havoc.

[siobhan222]

Thank you guys. So, I guess nothing will get worse tonight, right?

[Janie34]

I wish I could say that, Siobhan. It appears that another rainband is getting ready to move in. You can expect this to continue, I'm afraid. The wind gusts will be a constant presence too. I think the winds at WPB are now at 37mph. With Frances moving at 4 mph, its going to be a sloooow process. On the good side, she continues to weaken.

[guanaskip]

To actually answer part of your question, it's about 55 nautical miles from west edge of GB to Palm Beach. Going NW rather than due west, it's a little more.

[siobhan222]

To actually answer part of your question, it's about 55 nautical miles from west edge of GB to Palm Beach. Going NW rather than due west, it's a little more.

Thank you very much guanaskip. That is very helpful. I was getting confused looking at an atlas and saying "wow, that's about 60-70 miles" so we should be feeling parts of it really really soon (or already). What's real confusing is they say it's 200 miles from us now???? But it's hitting those islands. I'm lost.

[Stephanie]

As Frances sits and spins, her rain bands do move in a counter-clockwise direction so people in the path of these rain bands will get affected by them. It really does depend though on when, where and how fast Frances moves before you'll know when you'll feel the worst of her. If she's moving at 9 mph and the outter most band is 45 miles away, mathematically it would be 5 hours before you'll feel the affect of it. Now, If the size of the storm is 200 miles wide, with the eye at mid point, at that same spead, it'll be 11 hours before you feel the most severe winds. This is also assuming that you're getting a direct hit.

[siobhan222]

Thanks Stephanie. I guess it's moving at 4 mph. What does that mean?

[Stephanie]

Thanks Stephanie. I guess it's moving at 4 mph. What does that mean?

It'll be a cold day in h*ll before you see her!

Seriously, she's stalled and until she starts moving in a particular direction for several hours straight, it's hard to say when anyone is going be affected by her.

I'm starting to worry about the poor folks in the Bahamas though. She sitting over them and the longer she stays there, the more damage she'll create.