Frances Is Dying A Slow Death

[tropicstorm]

The 11 pm update will indicate a further weakening of Frances to about 95 mph - just keeps getting weaker & weaker. It's strangling itself with a mere 4 mph forward motion - sitting on itself & rotating over it's own cooling wake. This one's history folks. Tropical storm for Florida only - and that's if the current track verifies now with very liitle forward motion. I think developing Ivan is more interesting now.

[chris_fit]

I beg to differ....

I'm gonna call a lower pressure and the same winds.. at 5am the winds should be back to cat 3 status

[dennis1x1]

i think the vast outflow structure and persisten CDO will keep her an upper cat 1 hurricane at landfall.

[Hurricanehink]

Rain can still occur. While it may weaken, rain is a big problem with storms. Gaston killed a few in Virginia the other day, not as a strong storm but as a rain producer. Allison in 2001 is the most extreme example. Winds aren't the biggest problem; surge is. Still, they can breathe a little easier now that it isn't a 145 M.P.H. hurricane bearing down on them. However, be careful in harm's way.

[hurricane_lover]

dennis,

Dude, I gotta say, dude, you are way off on this, son. Chris is right. NO WAY this thing weakens to a Cat 1. She will at the least stay a high 2 Cat. Once she gets out over water and gets away from land, she will build back to a Cat 3 or 4.

[tropicstorm]

Perhaps, but no more.

[simplykristi]

Frances will be a major rain producer. Flood waters are just as deadly as the hurricane itself. I am glad that people in FL heeded the warnings. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the low-lying areas in FL.

Kristi

[crazycajuncane]

If this did happen, wouldn't it be so weird?

The biggest evacuation in Florida ever. Was this like the most extreme fire drill?

It's almost as the hype is killing Frances. Even if it makes landfall as a Cat. 2..... it was supposed to be the big one.

[dennis1x1]

chris.......shes been in open water for days now.....until the westerly shear abates there will be no strengthening......based on recon she is borderline cat1/cat2 at this time...


ships model decreases her another 10mph over the next 24 hours......it still forecasts shear.

[Weddermang]

A very interesting and probably accurate assessment of Frances' future. Go to Intellicast Windcast 2nd day and look at there forecast. mmm she may not make Florida

[jagesq]

link please

[tropicstorm]

Also, more southwesterly windshear expected & dry area choking this storm from the peninsula - this may be a minimal cat 1 at landfall but only tropical storm conditions will remain immediately thereafter. No chance now to regenerate. Also, as far as still being this extreme rain event - I don't think so - as the storm decreases in intensity, so does the convection. This storm is dying right now. Goodbye Frances.

[Anonymous]

You don't need a strong hurricane to experience devastating flooding. In the 1990s there was a tropical storm that stalled over the Southeast US. A place called Americus, Georgia picked up 24 inches of rain. That wasn't even a hurricane.

This is a hurricane, a Category 2 hurricane. Sure, it may weaken to a Cat 1 by landfall, but at the plodding speed Frances is inching forward at, you can bet the sunrise tomorrow that there is going to be a tremendous amount of torrential rain with this system. When a tropical cyclone hits land, the winds fall off, but all that energy has to go somewhere. A dying hurricane overland produces tremendous amounts of rainfall.

This hurricane is only moving at 4 miles per hour. That's walking speed for some people. Imagine all that torrential tropical rainfall falling over the same regions for hours and hours and hours, even DAYS!!!

We could be facing a horrific flooding catastrophe in Florida and Georgia and Alabama over the next few days.

The slow forward movement of this system will guarantee a prolonged period of beach erosion, from storm surge and from dangerous battering waves.

I would not want to be anywhere near central or northern Florida right now.

Make no mistake about this, even though Frances has weakened, she is one hell of a dangerous storm.

[simplykristi]

Jeb,
You are right! Look at what Gaston just did to Richmond this past week. Are people so naive that they don't realize that storms can produce torrential rain??? Flooding is a BIG killer!

Kristi

[Weddermang]

Your premise on the flooding is based on a slow progress up the center of Florida. See the link below for their forecast tract. My experience with Intellicast has been very positive over the past several years.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... dnav=d2_12

[HurricaneGirl]

Big time floods!

[Innotech]

want a good example of how dangerous flooding is? Cat 4 storm, 1900. Place- Galveston,TX. the storm winds definitely tore up everyhting, but what actually killed people was hte 20 foot storm surge and flooding. Frances is a HEAVY rainmaker it looks like, and flooding will be severe if she goes as slow as anticipated. Her winds will be very localized to landfall zone, unlike fast moving charley, and she will weaken quickly. however she will dump amazing amounts of rain as she goes, practically stalled, over hte florida peninsula not for hours, but for DAYS.

[HurricaneBill]

Retired storms that were floodmakers:

1955 Hurricane Connie (Category 4) hit NC as a Cat 3 and killed 25

1955 Hurricane Diane (Category 3) Hit NC as a Cat 2 only a week after Connie. Remnants deluged New England, killing 200.

1963 Hurricane Flora (Category 4) Stalled and looped over Cuba, killing 8000.

1965 Hurricane Betsy (Category 4) Hit S Fla and Louisiana as a Cat 3. New Orleans took a direct hit. About 80 dead

1969 Hurricane Camille (Category 5) 113 of the 259 deaths occured in Virginia as TD Camille dumped torrential rains.

1972 Hurricane Agnes (Category 1) Hit Florida as a Cat 1 and then moved up the east coast as a strong TS. New York and Pennsylvania suffered massive flooding. 134 dead.

1974 Hurricane Fifi (Category 2) Deluged Honduras, killing 8000.

1979 Hurricane David (Category 5) Torrential rains in Hispaniola were responsible for most of David's 2068 fatalities.

1988 Hurricane Gilbert (Category 5) The majority of Gilbert's deaths occured from mudslides caused by Gilbert's 2nd Mexican landfall.

1990 Hurricane Diana (Category 2) Diana hit the east coast of Mexico as a Cat 2 and caused flash floods and muydslides. 96 dead

1995 Hurricane Opal (Category 4) Most of the 59 deaths caused by Opal were in the Yucatan Peninsula, where Opal was just a TD.

1996 Hurricane Cesar (Category 1) Cesar caused floods in Nicaragua that killed 51.

1996 Hurricane Fran (Category 3) Floods killed 34 in NC.

1996 Hurricane Hortense (Category 4) Hit PR as a Cat 1, but dumped heavy amounts of rain that killed 21.

1998 Hurricane Georges (Category 4) Dumped 20 inces of rain in Mississippi and Alabama. Flooding caused most of Georges' 602 deaths.

1998 Hurricane Mitch (Category 5) Mitch actually was only a Category 1 at landfall on Honduras. However, by stalling off the coast, Mitch had dumped up to 72 inches of rain in some areas. Catastrophic flooding and mudslides occured. One mudslide killed 2000 people. Mitch's death toll was over 11000.

1999 Hurricane Floyd (Category 4) The deadliest U.S. hurricane since Agnes, Floyd dumped tremendous amounts of rain on NC. Struck by Dennis only a few weeks earlier, NC was soon underwater. 57 direct deaths. 20 indirect deaths.

2001 TS Allison Allison deluged Houston and slowly drifted across the Gulf states and then up the east coast, dumping torrential rains the whole time. 41 dead

2003 Hurricane Isabel (Category 5) Isabel hit NC as a Cat 2, but flooding killed 16 directly and 35 indirectly.

[mobilebay]

The 11 pm update will indicate a further weakening of Frances to about 95 mph - just keeps getting weaker & weaker. It's strangling itself with a mere 4 mph forward motion - sitting on itself & rotating over it's own cooling wake. This one's history folks. Tropical storm for Florida only - and that's if the current track verifies now with very liitle forward motion. I think developing Ivan is more interesting now.

You need to go to work for the circus... you sure know how to fold a tent.

[PanAmMIA]

Frances will be a major rain producer. Flood waters are just as deadly as the hurricane itself. I am glad that people in FL heeded the warnings. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the low-lying areas in FL.

Kristi

All of Florida is a low-lying area! I remember getting over 20 inches of rain in northwest Dade following David in '79. The streets were flooded for a a day or two but...
Mike