Track shifting West

[~SirCane]

Notice the Computer models below... The GFDL has it going smack into Pensacola/Mobile. A few others have it going into Panama City or Destin, and another into Apalachicola. I also noticed that the NHC's window of projection has shifted all the way over to the MS/LA border.

Folks up here on the Northern Gulf Coast better not let their guard down!

[Brent]

Yep. NWS is predicting 3-6" of rain here in Eastern Alabama between Montgomery and Atlanta, GA. Looks like the center(whatever is left) will pass about 75 miles west of here around Midnight Monday Night.

[dennis1x1]

cant really see it being more than a gusty prolonged shower after 24 hours over land...regardless.

[bevgo]

Crap. I thought FL was going to get all the fun. Just kidding--I think FL has had enought to last the year. I really don't want it to come my way eiither

[~SirCane]

That Gulf water is WARM. In 1995 Erin exited the FL Peninsula as a Tropical Storm and quickly became a 95mph Hurricane. It was better organized than it was off the FL East Coast. There was a lot of damage in Pensacola from it too.

From past experience, a CAT2 is nothing to take lightly. Hope folks aren't getting a false sense of security down there in South and Central Florida!

[PTPatrick]

I dont want to make anybody think that it would be more than gusty prolonged shower either...BUT...I have seen many storms spend a great deal of time over land only to emerge back over water and regain strength quite quickly. I have also seen them sit for a while over land and maintain stength,esp when they are close to water(read: Anywhere in FL)

Exampls:

Danny sat over Mobile for about 24 hours...came in as a cat 1 and was a strong tropical storm 24 hours later...and then traversed the southeast only to become reclassified before it had even come out of the Carolinas.

Allison regained tropical characteristics quickly after spends DAYS over texas.

Erin took a similar path to what Frances will take over FL only to hit the panhandle stronger than it hit the East Coast...not sure how much time it had over FL or over water, but it seems like it didnt spend more than a day over the NE gulf.

Georges went to a cat 1 on its trip over the Dominican republic and went from a cat and was back up to a cat 2 in a few short hours after it emerged into the channel between it and Cuba and hugged the cuban coast for a day all the while maintaining and gaining strength.

I could write more but you get the idea...Panhandle should not be caught off guard. On another note...right now Frances is about the same strength as Georges when it hit Pascagoula...but 20 inches of rain, a 100 year flood, and a week without power were enough to make me realize just what a cat 2 can do

[Brent]

Went back to the archives... Erin came ashore near Vero Beach with 85 mph winds on Wednesday August 2, 1995 around 2am EDT. Weakened to 50 mph and re-emerged only 7 hours later, then was over the GOM for about 24 hours and hit Pensacola as a Strong Cat 1.

I sorta doubt that scenario here.

[~SirCane]

Frances will hit S. Florida as a stronger Hurricane than Erin was-though......

[westbury]

Both NBC and CBS affiliates here mentioned the forecast swath and urged folks not to let their guard down over the weekend. Both said watch what happens Sunday into Monday.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Erin was a nasty storm that was strengthening as she went inland. I remember when she exited the Florida Peninsula and entered the Gulf, it was like pouring gasoline on a fire, the convection just exploded. It's a good thing she didn't stay over the water longer than she did.