8 AM=Between WNW and NW at 6 mph

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 041133
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE FRANCES NEAR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST VERY NEAR FREEPORT IN THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM EAST OF WEST PALM
BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BORDERLINE CATEGORY TWO/THREE HURRICANE UNTIL
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SETTLEMENT POINT IN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH...115 KPH WITH GUSTS
TO 82 MPH...132 KM/HR...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 974.5 MB... 28.78
INCHES AND FALLING RAPIDLY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE
BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[tampastorm]

last 3 hours .1 N .3 west, more WNW

[Guest]

windy out there the water has not rose yet looking for a storm surge up into the yard. Got to keep a look out for gators after the dogs.

[Tip]

Looking at the Miami radar loop, the main rain band is moving due west across Fla. It seems there is a path of least resistence in that direction. do not see any real mechanism to carry Frances to the north.