11am Ivan-60 mph winds, 997 mb pressure

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Ivan Advisory Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 04, 2004

...Ivan continues westward over the tropical Atlantic...

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located
near latitude 8.9 north...longitude 38.9 west or about 1575
miles...2540 km...east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts...and conditions appear favorable for an increase in strength
over the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position... 8.9 N... 38.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Ivan Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004

The storm continues to exhibit well-defined banding features but
the deep convection is rather ragged-looking at the moment. Dvorak
intensity estimates are unchanged from the previous synoptic
time...so the initial intensity remains at 50 kt. The upper-level
outflow looks strong and analyses from the University of Wisconsin
CIMSS indicate weak vertical shear ahead of Ivan. Therefore
strengthening is predicted...similar to the previous advisory.
This intensity forecast is a little above the SHIPS guidance but
not as strong as indicated by the latest uncoupled GFDL model run.
The initial motion remains essentially westward at around 16 kt.
The steering scenario for Ivan remains unchanged. A strong high
pressure area is likely to persist to the north of the tropical
cyclone for several days. The official track forecast is similar
to that from the previous advisory. The GFDL and FSU superensemble
model tracks are a little to the south of...and a little faster
than...the official forecast.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/1500z 8.9n 38.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 9.2n 41.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 9.9n 44.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 06/0000z 10.6n 47.8w 65 kt
48hr VT 06/1200z 11.4n 51.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 07/1200z 13.0n 57.5w 80 kt-Just east of Barbados
96hr VT 08/1200z 15.0n 63.5w 90 kt-South of the Virgin Islands
120hr VT 09/1200z 17.5n 68.5w 100 kt-South of the Southeast coast of the Dominican Republic