GOM, New Orleans

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LSUChamps0002
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GOM, New Orleans

#1 Postby LSUChamps0002 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:32 am

The models have been too far north for a long time. They keep shifting west, then west, then, well, west. The latest ones now take it either to the Fl panhandle or AL, MS coastline after entering the GOM.

My question is this - I'm in, or right by, New Orleans. What are the chances of this thing actually getting over by me? Obviously 'you never know', but does anyone seriously think it will come this far west? Thanks.
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frankthetank
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#2 Postby frankthetank » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:35 am

@ its current pace, if it does go that way, it'll be Christmas.... :lol:
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#3 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:37 am

Actually, 12z GFS and 12z ETA have shifted back eastward, showing a true landfall around Apalachicola with a continued NW movement inland into eastern Alabama. Obviously, GOM landfall location is still very much up in the air.
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#4 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:40 am

I was just looking at that same thing. The front seems to be moving NE out of the south and weakening at the same time. In my opinion I think by the time Frances gets across Florida and into the Gulf the High will be building back in, therefore pushing her further west than anticipated. Anyone else think the same or not. I would like other opinions on this scenario.
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#5 Postby Skywatch_NC » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:07 pm

NHC has Frances as a TS by Monday before a second landfall on the panhandle.

Eric
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rtd2
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#6 Postby rtd2 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:47 pm

quote" showing a true landfall "





Is there such a thing with a model :D
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#7 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:52 pm

frankthetank wrote:@ its current pace, if it does go that way, it'll be Christmas.... :lol:


lol, no doubt
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:00 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I was just looking at that same thing. The front seems to be moving NE out of the south and weakening at the same time. In my opinion I think by the time Frances gets across Florida and into the Gulf the High will be building back in, therefore pushing her further west than anticipated. Anyone else think the same or not. I would like other opinions on this scenario.


I haven't had a chance to check the models or the WV loops to see what is happening, but that is a definite possibility. In fact I emailed my Mom in Niceville this morning telling her to prepare for a CAT1 landfall very close to her area. Last time I had a chance to look at anything it appeared to me that Frances has a good chance of landfalling near Apalachicola and riding right up the coast or doing it just offshore and actually landfalling between Destin and Biloxi.
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#9 Postby dhweather » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:02 pm

I hope nobody held their breath until Frances makes the first landfall, they passed out! :)

Maybe she heads towards us, maybe not.
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