2pm Frances-105 mph winds, 962 mb pressure-STALLED

[Brent]

HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...FRANCES HESITATES...EXPECTED TO RESUME ITS MOTION TOWARD FLORIDA
LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
TO JUST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ST. MARKS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF PALM BEACH
FLORIDA.

DATA FROM RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS
BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED AT JUPITER INLET.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 962
MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 79.0 W. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Anonymous]

The longer this stalls the more time it has to reintinsify. Not good. Also, seeing the vids from PB the winds are already very strong, and if they persist they will continually wear down structures.

[Anonymous]

No doubt about the possible destruction of structures form prolonged periods of even moderate hurricane force winds.

GOMER'S better be ready for the upcoming days, from Monday thru the end of the week.

[Stormsfury]

The longer this stalls the more time it has to reintinsify. Not good. Also, seeing the vids from PB the winds are already very strong, and if they persist they will continually wear down structures.

IN most circumstances, yes ... however, Frances' windfield is so large now and still with more dry air entrainment, it would take a LOT of time for a consolidation of the wind fields now ... this is not the same type of storm that we had 3-4 days ago ... where before Frances' had a very tight wind core (much like an Andrew or a Charley, but now resembles Isabel of last year) ...

SF

[Brent]

Hurricane Force winds sustained are now onshore with the 80 mph report at Jupiter Inlet. With landfall still 12-18 hours away, and then winds past the eye, that means some spots could experience Category 1 winds for almost 24 hours, or certainly strong tropical storm force winds. That may cause the damage to be worse than it normally would be with those winds.

[Anonymous]

Despite its large structre, it has gotten better organized. You can easily spot the eye in the vis sat pic over the GOM and western Atlantic.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

Despite its size, even modest intensification is possible.