18z run and increased flood potential, appalachians.

[lookout]

I believe this stall has effected the models in such a way as giving the trough out west more time to pick up frances before she heads too far west to miss the mountains. previous runs had frances going well west and indeed the nhc had her getting as far west as nearly 90W. the 12z gfs, the canadian, the uk, and now most of the tropical model suite forecast a quicker turn either into extreme eastern alabama or georgia. this sets the stage for a potentially major flooding situation in the mountains of Georgia, eastern Tn and the western Carolinas. I dont believe this threat has been hit home enough because a widespread area of 8 to 12 inches of rain is likely along and to the right of frances track. Plus on a track such as this, there will be major upslope flow potential for areas in north Ga and the western carolinas which could significantly add on to the totals. this run is also important to the residents of the GOM, especially those in the Alabama and Ms coastline areas. this is a huge right shift so some consistancy is needed before having too high of confidance.

[Brent]

I'm right on the Alabama/Georgia stateline about 40 miles north of Columbus, GA(where Alabama sticks out to the east). Looks like a lot of rain. The good news is, our yard doesn't flood, the water flows downhill, but the last time we had a 5" rain event we had historic flooding on a big river here.