5pm Frances-Still 105 mph, 962 mb pressure

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 44

Statement as of 21:00Z on September 04, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Grand
Bahama...abaco...bimimi and the Berry Islands. At 5 PM
EDT...2100z... the Hurricane Warning is discontinued for the
remainder of the northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula...on the
West Coast...from St. Marks southward around the southern end of
the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
along the Florida Panhandle from west of St. Marks to Panama City.


Hurricane center located near 26.9n 79.3w at 04/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 4 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 962 mb
eye diameter 60 nm
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 60se 50sw 65nw.
50 kt.......130ne 120se 80sw 120nw.
34 kt.......180ne 180se 120sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.9n 79.3w at 04/2100z
at 04/1800z center was located near 26.8n 79.2w

forecast valid 05/0600z 27.2n 80.4w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 65nw.
50 kt...130ne 120se 80sw 120nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 120sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 05/1800z 27.8n 81.9w...inland
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...125ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 06/0600z 29.0n 84.0w...over water
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 06/1800z 30.5n 86.0w...moving inland
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 07/1800z 32.5n 89.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/1800z 35.7n 88.8w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 09/1800z 41.0n 85.0w...extratropical
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.9n 79.3w

next advisory at 05/0300z

forecaster Avila

[weatherFrEaK]

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT BOTH MINIMUM
PRESSURE AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED STEADY. INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES AT 90 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS
OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND POUNDING GRAND BAHAMA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING
OR MODEL GUIDANCE...FRANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING
THAT FRANCES DOES NOT HESITATE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE CORE WILL
REACH THE COAST SOON AND CONTINUE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTARD ACROSS FLORIDA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS WHERE IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE.
SLOW MOVING FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH
OF THE CENTER WILL EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 26.9N 79.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 80.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 27.8N 81.9W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 60 KT...MOVING INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1800Z 35.7N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 85.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 44

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

...Large Hurricane Frances remains stalled...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Grand
Bahama...abaco...bimimi and the Berry Islands. At 5 PM
EDT...2100z... the Hurricane Warning is discontinued for the
remainder of the northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula...on the
West Coast...from St. Marks southward around the southern end of
the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
along the Florida Panhandle from west of St. Marks to Panama City.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the large eye of Hurricane Frances was located
by radar and surface observations near latitude 26.9 north...
longitude 79.3 west or about 50 miles... 80 km...east-northeast
of Palm Beach Florida.

Frances has been nearly stationary for the past several hours but
the hurricane should begin to move between the west and
west-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr soon. On this track...the
strongest winds surrounding the large eye of Frances will move
across the Florida East Coast tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 miles...120 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Strong winds are already affecting the East
Coast of Florida and will be spreading inland...where warnings for
hurricane and tropical storm force winds have been issued. For storm
information specific to your area...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb...28.41 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can
still be possible on the west side of islands of the northern
Bahamas.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.

Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida
Peninsula in association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and South
Florida tonight.

Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...26.9 N... 79.3 W. Expected
movement...between west and west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum
sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 962 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[lilbump3000]

I knew it was going to still be 105 mph.

[Wnghs2007]

To far west in the extended thought. 89.0 W. Not going to happen. more like 85 at the most. Models showing much further east. I knew NHC was a GFDL lover but not this much. Sheesh.

[NorthGaWeather]

Well Avila was the forecaster.

[Coldfront]

Avila is such a pain in the kiester! He's probably using a ouija board for his forecasts.

[PurdueWx80]

Well, there is no sense in flipping w/ every model run!

[Matthew5]

The Nhc is not even looking at there data???

[Anonymous]

Guess the data that Derek Ortt posted wasn't verified.

[dennis1x1]

no strengthening........winds still around 95 (105 officially, but only measured at 95)

[Wnghs2007]

Hmmmm. What I thought. The screwed up NHC98E model and the GFDL.

[Anonymous]

no strengthening........winds still around 95 (105 officially, but only measured at 95)

The SMRS (Think thats what its called, Ortt posted a topic on it) detected 116 mph surface winds. Supposedly its good at analyzing surface winds in hurricanes.

[birdwomn]

My theory is that Frances is too close to landfall for the NHC to make a big change to the forecast unless the data was undeniable. So, they stuck with what they had. I can understand this reasoning, especially when dealing with public. That doesn't mean I like it, tho.

Interestingly, Steve Lyons on TWC is actually talking about Frances being a possible Cat 3 at landfall. Kinda unusual for him, IMO.