11pm NHC track, is this happening?

[Stormcenter]

O.K. for Frances to follow the NHC 11pm projected track she needs to start moving wnw now. It sure doesn't look like this is happening.
I think the 5am track tomorrow will be adjusted westeward some.

NHC Track

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html


Miami Radar Link

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/je ... /anis.html

[rtd2]

JUST like for 3 days the track has been too far N I think it will shift west a little tommorow...as slow as she's going they have plenty of time to move it!

[NateFLA]

I agree. Doesn't look to me like she can get north of Tampa in time. Maybe 5-10 miles south of Tampa though...

[PTPatrick]

Agree it is NOT going North of tampa...looks like it will go over lake okochobee and sebring, then tampa....afterward Mobile to Panama city

[lilbump3000]

To follow that track she will have to start moving NW.

[rtd2]

Quote"Agree it is NOT going North of tampa...looks like it will go over lake okochobee and sebring, then tampa....afterward Mobile to Panama city"






WE are close but as I've been saying Exit point at PUNTA GORDA! then Near mobile bay (+- 60 miles )

[tampastorm]

Terrible news for Tampa , if on N side, can cause serious storm surge and much more flooding then on South side

[Dan]

Frances is poking along at a very slow clip, meanwhile a trough is digging quickly from the Northwest US heading toward the Rockies. If this trough can continue at this clip, Frances is going slow enough to where the trough may influence Frances to take a more NW to NNW track and just briefly enter the Gulf, make secondary landfall on the Panhandle and then track north through extreme East Alabama or SW Georgia as we get into Tuesday/Wednesday. The Global models are picking up this trough, some of the Hurricane models are too, and the GFDL has no clue what a trough is, just like with Charley.

[Agua]

Well, isn't the timing and movement of the trough along with Frances movement the key as to how far west it will go? It would seem reasonable that the longer it took Frances to move across the penninsula, the further east the second landfall would occur, if she moves fast enough to make it to the Gulf before being drawn to the trough at all.

Is that right or wrong?

[tampastorm]

How many hours until the trough would come into play?

[Wnghs2007]

Water Vapor. Make your own loop. I would suggest 30 frames at highest speed.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Sanibel]

Am I hallucinating or is that wobble and storm body turning WSW and towards us?

[cape_escape]

Am I hallucinating or is that wobble and storm body turning WSW and towards us?

Ok, I was able to dismiss the "WSW" theory, until you said it to Sanibel! How's the weather out there? I'm in the Cape.

[Sanibel]

Gusts starting to shake house at the most minimal level. Wind picking up and palms whipping. I went outside and it is just like warm wind windy night (not a monumental storm). Roof creaking.


We'll see if this is an actual trend. If so I need to get the second half of the furniture in off the Charley-battered deck.


Dont worry, she'll lose 20-30mph on the trip here if he comes...

[cape_escape]

Gusts starting to shake house at the most minimal level. Wind picking up and palms whipping. I went outside and it is just like warm wind windy night (not a monumental storm). Roof creaking.


We'll see if this is an actual trend. If so I need to get the second half of the furniure in off the Charley-battered deck.


Dont worry, he'll lose 20-30mph on the trip here if he comes...

Stay safe out there! I'll be watching your posts closely, so I know when to panic!!!

[Sanibel]

If I disappear I lost power. (Like some on this site)

[hookemfins]

Am I hallucinating or is that wobble and storm body turning WSW and towards us?

yea, you're hallucinating. Don't confuse the odd shape of the eye as a wsw movement. The movement is slighly N of due west.

[Stormcenter]

Am I hallucinating or is that wobble and storm body turning WSW and towards us?

yea, you're hallucinating. Don't confuse the odd shape of the eye as a wsw movement. The movement is slighly N of due west.

Slightly north of due west,huh?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/je ... /anis.html

[hookemfins]

As I stated, the shape of the eye is not circular so it appears to be moving wsw when in reality it's not. The NHC says she's moving at 285 and I'll belive them.

Just study the entire movement of the center and disregard the eyes odd shape. it will throw you off.

[Big_Steve]

:?:

Several of you mention that based upon the path that Frances is now taking since she has made landfall in Florida that you believe the NHC will have to move the track of the storm further to the west. My question is how far to the west? I'm in Biloxi, Mississippi. Would the track be moved this far to the west later today by the NHC?


Big Steve
Biloxi, MS


End Of Message
09/05/04