11PM UPDATE

[rtd2]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 960 MB. THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY WITH AN WELL DEFINED EYEWALL ABOUT 45 N MI ACROSS.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL LOOKED A LITTLE RAGGED FOR A
WHILE BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SO CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE SEVERAL OR MORE
HOURS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS
BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/04. THE PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 HOURS AT 5 TO 7 KT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND IN 12 HOURS.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO MARTIN
COUNTY. THEREAFTER THE STEERING RIDGE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED WILL BE WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. ALL MODELS
SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SPREAD
OUT A LOT AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A RECURVATURE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE THESE MODELS AND IS ALSO
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. THE SLOW MOTION SHOULD
CAUSE FRANCES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE OVER LAND AND IT IS NOT
EXPECTED THAT FRANCES WILL REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE
GULF.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 27.1N 79.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 27.3N 80.6W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0000Z 28.3N 82.3W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 84.1W 60 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 85.8W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z 33.2N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 09/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 10/0000Z 40.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 45

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

...Large hurricane nears Florida East Coast...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Grand
Bahama...abaco...bimimi and the Berry Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from St. Marks southward around the
southern end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the
southeast coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of
Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Florida Panhandle
from west of St. Marks to Panama City.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 27.1 north...longitude 79.7 west or about 35 miles
northeast of West Palm Beach Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. The
western portion of the eyewall has already moved over portions of
Palm Beach...Martin and St Lucie counties. A continued slow
west-northwestward motion is expected to move the center of the
hurricane inland on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. There is still an opportunity for some strengthening in the
several hours before the center moves inland.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can
still be possible on the west and south sides of islands of the
northern Bahamas.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
on the Florida East Coast. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above
normal levels is expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest
Florida coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels is expected south of the path of Frances. Storm surge
flooding of up to 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels is expected
along the northeast Gulf Coast of Florida.

Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida
Peninsula in association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and North
Florida tonight and early Sunday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...27.1 N... 79.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am EDT and 3 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence