MORNING STORM2K TROPICAL UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 5, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Overnight Hurricane Frances has made landfall on the Southeast coast of Florida and is just West of Stuart Florida. Her current position is near lat. 27.5N, lon. 80.9W. Her current forward speed is around 7 mph to the West-Northwest and Frances is expected to continue this general direction and forward speed for the next 24-36 hours as she slowly plods across the South Central part of the state towards the Gulf of Mexico. Current winds in Frances are sustained around 90 mph with higher gusts mainly East and Northeast of the center. these winds will slowly decrease as the storm plods along but residents of the peninsula can expect at least tropical storm force winds over much of the area for most of the day to day and into tonight. Recently a gust to 124 mph was recorded at Port Canaveral. winds to 40 mph have been recorded as far North as Jacksonville, FL. These winds have been pounding the Florida East coast for close to 12 hours in some places now and will continue for may more hours due to the slow westward movement of the storm. With torrential rains accompanying Frances and saturated ground from recent Hurricane Charley there is a very strong possibility of many trees and powerlines being blown down across much of the peninsula as Frances slowly moves Westward. Hurricane warnings remain in effect along the East coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach North to Flagler Beach including Lake Okeechobee. Also included in the Hurricane warnings this morning are Grand Bahama Island, Abaco, Biminin, and the Berry Islands. Hurricane watches are in effect from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Deerfield beach south around the southern tip of Florida and up the West Coast of the peninsula to St. Markls FL. including the Florida Keys, Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning also remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound. A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Florida panhandle from West of St. Marks to Panama City. Central pressure is estimated at 975 mb or 28.79". Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts, to near 20
inches, are expected over the Florida peninsula in association with Hurricane Frances and with rainfall amounts like this there is a threat of major flooding occurring in many areas. Also, as with any landfalling hurricane tornadoes are a threat, especially to the North and East of the landfall point. Much of the peninsula North of the landfall area is currently under a tornado watch and at least on developing tornado has already been reported in Flagler County. Guidance shows that the ridge to the North of Frances which has been help steer her West and WNW continues strong and is not expected to weaken for the next 24 hours. This will continue to keep Frances on her current West to West-Norhtwest track until she emerges into the Gulf of Mexico sometime tomorrow. After that a strong trough moving in from the West is expected to erode the Western portion of the ridge which will allow Frances to begin a more Norhtwesterly track which will take her into the Florida panhandle probably around Apalachicola. Since Frances is expected to keep her structure even though she will be over land for at least 24 hours and weakening, once she gets back over the almost hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico there is a possibility that she could reintensify to Hurricane strength prior to her second landfall, especially if she remains over water and moves further Westward than expected.

Tropical Storm Ivan is now Hurricane Ivan with winds estimated at 75 mph near the eye of the storm. That makes Ivan the fith Hurricane of the season. He is expected to continue his Westerly track with a slight turn to the West-Northwest expected within 24 hours. Current location of Ivan is near 9.7N, 44.3W or about 1210 miles East-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane Ivan is moving west at 21 mph and should continue this speed for at least the next 24 hours. The estimated central pressure in Ivan is 987 mb or 29.15". Current guidance suggests that Ivan will continue to gradually strengthen as he continues moving torwards the islands. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Ivan as he is expected to continue to strengthen into a major Hurricane prior to crossing the Islands in 3-4 days.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic no development is expected through Monday.

This is not an official product. For official products and details of the effects of Frances which can be expected in your local area contact your local NWS office or the NHC for information.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)