1:00PM SPECIAL UPDATE-IVAN NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE

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Brent
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1:00PM SPECIAL UPDATE-IVAN NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE

#1 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:04 pm

HOLY ****!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

Hurricane Ivan Special Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 1:00 PM AST on September 05, 2004

...Ivan strengthens rapidly into the fourth major hurricane of the
season...watches may be required for portions of the Windward
Islands later today...

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Ivan.

Satellite images indicate that Ivan has intensified significantly
over the past several hours...and it is now a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

At 1 PM AST...1700z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 10.1 north...longitude 46.6 west or about 995
miles...1600 km...east of the Windward Islands.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 21 mph ...33 km/hr...and a
gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185
km/hr...with higher gusts. Addtional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

Repeating the 1 PM AST position...10.1 N... 46.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch
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#2 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:07 pm

OMG!!!! NOW FORECAST TO BE A CAT 4 WHEN IT HITS THE ISLANDS!!!

Hurricane Ivan Special Discussion Number 13...Corrected

Statement as of 1:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004

...Correct to show inland at 120hr only...

the purpose of this special advisory is to report the rapid
intensification of Ivan over the last few hours. A special Dvorak
classification from TAFB and data T-numbers gave an intensity of
about 100 kt. Objective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that even this
estimate may be conservative. Some additional strengthening is
likely but we show the intensity levelling off within the next day
or two to reflect uncertainties.

No changes to the track or wind radii forecasts have been made.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1700z 10.1n 46.6w 100 kt
12hr VT 06/0000z 10.6n 48.7w 110 kt
24hr VT 06/1200z 11.5n 52.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 07/0000z 12.4n 55.9w 120 kt
48hr VT 07/1200z 13.3n 59.4w 120 kt
72hr VT 08/1200z 15.0n 65.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 09/1200z 17.5n 71.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 10/1200z 20.5n 75.0w 70 kt...inland
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#3 Postby CourierPR » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:07 pm

What a season this has become.
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:12 pm

Unbelievable ... four majors, and the season isn't halfway over yet ...

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#5 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:13 pm

This is a season to remember. I judge a season on landfalls.
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#6 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:13 pm

Im sure this will not be the last major hurricane of this season.
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#7 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:14 pm

Heads up for all our people down in the islands! It's been a crazy year and it's far from over!
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:14 pm

We all KNEW that the satellite presentation indicated much stronger than 85 mph ... and this definitely seals the strongest furthest south hurricane to develop in N ATL basin since records have been kept ...

SF
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#9 Postby x-y-no » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:16 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Heads up for all our people down in the islands! It's been a crazy year and it's far from over!


Yes ... forecast approaching Barbados as a cat 4 in 48 hours ... :eek:
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Who said????

#10 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:18 pm

Now who said this was gong to be "slow season"?

Another cat. 4 or 5 hurricane and it's STILL only September 5th 2004.
I sure hope this doesn't bother Florida again. You guys have the
bullseye on your chest this season.

:eek:
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:23 pm

OH MY FREAKIN GOD. Theres no appropriate words to describe this season :eek: :eek:

Its record breaking for sure.I'm afraid Florida will take the brunt of the hurricanes thru the whole season. :(
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Re: Who said????

#12 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Now who said this was gong to be "slow season"?

Another cat. 4 or 5 hurricane and it's STILL only September 5th 2004.
I sure hope this doesn't bother Florida again. You guys have the
bullseye on your chest this season.

:eek:


Honestly, Ivan is racing westward at 20+ MPH, and still at a very low latitude ... this one may not have time to recurve ...

SF
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#13 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:35 pm

Your correct stormsfury. With a storm this powerful and moving this fast, it will be hard to curve this system out to sea.
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#14 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:37 pm

He has his mind made up.

:grr:

GO AWAY IVAN
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends

Anonymous

#15 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:38 pm

Damn talk about rapid intesification. :eek:
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Re: Who said????

#16 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:38 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Now who said this was gong to be "slow season"?

Another cat. 4 or 5 hurricane and it's STILL only September 5th 2004.
I sure hope this doesn't bother Florida again. You guys have the
bullseye on your chest this season.

:eek:


Honestly, Ivan is racing westward at 20+ MPH, and still at a very low latitude ... this one may not have time to recurve ...

SF[/quote

So then where is he going?
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#17 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm

If he shoots up to major now he has less chance of hitting the US as a major because he could have expended by then...



Ivan has continued the 2004 weirdness by becoming the southern-most forming cyclone in history. With Alex and the southern hemisphere storm we can't deny global warming at this point...
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#18 Postby opera ghost » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:40 pm

good god...

37 days since Alex kicked us off. 37 days- 3 landfalls in florida, 2 landfalls in the carolinas, one landfall on the north atlantic coast.

And what's really creepy about it?

Alex bonnie CHARLEY Danielle earl FRANCIS Gaston hermine IVAN....

On the 2's we have baby TS's. On the 3's.... we have landfalling major hurricanes.
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#19 Postby BigO » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:45 pm

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Nothing specific, just a feeling of dread.
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#20 Postby ilmc172pilot » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:46 pm

moving at 21 mph...man shes smokin...I thought that at that speed it woulnd hinder rapid development?
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