Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Ivan

[MWatkins]

Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Ivan
2:00PM EDT 9/05/2004

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Sattelite imagery indicates that Ivan has become the 4th major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season...and the strongest hurricane on record for a system this far south in the tropical Atlantic by a large margin. At 1:00PM AST today...the eye of powerfull hurricane Ivan was located near 10.1 north...46.6 west...or about 995 miles east of the Windward Islands.

Ivan is nothing like Frances in terms of track and forward motion. Unlike Frances...Ivan will continue to move rapidly across the Atlantic and could reach the Windward Islands in two days. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that hurricane watches could be issued for some portion of the islands later tonight.

Ivan is likely stronger than the official intensity of 115MPH. Ivan could become a dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the next 24 hours and remain intense upon it's arrival into the Caribbean sea.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

Despite the failue of the latest GFS model to initialize this major hurricane...the models are in very good agreement on a track that will bend the hurricane to the west-northwest over time...and indicate a track very close to or over the Dominican Republic late in the forecast period. The hurricane could be approaching the far southern Bahamas at the conclusion of the 5 day period.

FORECAST INTENSITY

Ivan is expected to remain a dangerous category 4 hurricane throughout the next few days. Minor differences in track may determine if the hurricane weakens due to land interaction...and there are some indications that upper-level wnds may not be as favorable as the current environment toward the end of the forecast period. However...little is known about changes in hurricane intensity...especially in the long range.

EXTENDED MOTION

In the longer term...if Frances is slow to exit...and it is not forecast to be at this time...then the Ivan may find a weakness left in the ridge. If not...there is some concern that Ivan could end up as a threat to some portion of the southeast US. It is far too early to determine which location would be threatened...if any at all.


MISC QUESTIONS

Q: What should residents of the Eastern Caribbean be doing right now...including Puerto Rico?
A: Residents should review their hurricane plan and understand that a hurricane watch could be posted for their area in the next day or two...and begin to make preliminary preparations for this hurricane at this time.

Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do?
A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do.

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?
A:It still appears this could be another 7 to 8 days from the US coast.

Q:Oh no...Ivan is heading straight for Florida too?
A:Although the current track of Ivan looks somewhat scary...there is no indication that this system is targeting any specific location. There is plenty of time to watch the progress of Ivan...it could still miss the US all together...so there is no need to worry about this hurricane. Florida residents should simply monitor it's progress like all residents of the hurricane region should be doing.

We will update or replace this update around 10PM tonight. Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.

MW

[PuertoRicoLibre]

So far this storm looks very similar to David in terms of track and intensity. A storm of this type forecasted to be towards our south is a real danger.

[cycloneye]

Yes the hurricanes moving from the south are the most dangerous for Puerto Rico so I am already preparing just in case.

[Fego]

Guys, it is possible to analyze the ridge north of Ivan?.. Whats going on with it?.. What do the computer models say about it?