NHC... WILL adjust track left at 5am...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

NHC... WILL adjust track left at 5am...

#1 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:11 am

The FOUR major models are now all left of the forecast. (Euro "ECMWF", Ukmet, Nogaps, GFDL)
The only models to the right are the NHC history based model,
and the ones which initialize off of the GFS which is obviously on the crack again.
It is under forecasting the highs, and forecasting ghost lows... poor GFS.
Somone should put it out of its misury!
-Eric

UKMET, GFDL:
Image

NOGAPS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

Euro "ECMWF":
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Lets see what they say in the am... most likely though i will be catching the 11am not the 5am ;)
-Eric
Last edited by ericinmia on Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#2 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:29 am

HAHA, goes to show not to speak to soon...

a little after posting this, the GFS swung back and is now south of the NHC track too... thus its dependancies are also.
I was going to post this info on another site when i noticed something about map was off... lol
-Eric
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact Fego

BTW

#3 Postby Fego » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:30 am

At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 10.7 north... longitude 50.6 west or about 625
miles...1010 km... east-southeast of Barbados.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph...33 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan continues to strengthen rapidly and is currently a
category 4 hurricane... if this intensification phase continues...
Ivan will approach category 5 status during the next 12 to 24

That explain the models above, from 10.8N at 11pm sunday, down to 10.7N at 2am monday
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

Re: BTW

#4 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:34 am

Fego wrote:That explain the models above, from 10.8N at 11pm sunday, down to 10.7N at 2am monday


Nice find...
I hadn't plotted out the 2am yet... and hadn't noticed.
-Eric

Edit:
Another thought... Tomorrow south fla. should be in the extended 5 day cone! :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact Fego

What the...

#5 Postby Fego » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:39 am

.. At that speed, how come he goes down from 10.8 N to 10.7N?.. whats going on around that make Ivan going .1 down?
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
Top
User avatar
Cyclone Runner
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Crows Nest, NSW, Australia
Contact:
Contact Cyclone Runner

#6 Postby Cyclone Runner » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:40 am

Note that the new model tracks above would have far less inteference from mountains than the earlier tracks straight over the Dominican Republic. This would allow Ivan to retain much of its original strength, as the area between Haiti and Cuba provides a good low-impact gap, much like the gap Charley had over the very small neck of Western Cuba, which resulted in no loss of force whatsoever. This is a bad scenario as it allows Ivan to emerge into Bahamas as a very strong storm.
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

Re: What the...

#7 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:58 am

Fego wrote:.. At that speed, how come he goes down from 10.8 N to 10.7N?.. whats going on around that make Ivan going .1 down?


The high above him is pushing on him with considerable force... it is also at that resolution, this far out... the NHC might have been unable to precisely predict the cords when his i was not very apparent at the 11pm, where they might still have the prob, or they now have it pegged pretty well... who knows? But their inaccuracy with no flight data, and no eye, and its distance from land with the sat. eclipse... that is prob the reason.

damn... i need sleep... see you all in the am.

Hope for the best, i'm STILL ready for the worst... lol gnight
-Eric
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

#8 Postby LaBreeze » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:07 am

Then they will shift to the right, then to the left again, and then again to the right.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#9 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:34 am

Looks like Florida to GOM cane,now :eek:
0 likes   
Top
B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#10 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:38 am

Anyone care to take a stab at explaining what that blob is to Ivan's southwest quadrant? It never seems to go away and it doesn't wrap in with the storm. Ideas?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact Innotech

#11 Postby Innotech » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:16 am

B-Bear wrote:Anyone care to take a stab at explaining what that blob is to Ivan's southwest quadrant? It never seems to go away and it doesn't wrap in with the storm. Ideas?


the alien ship controlling it. Ive seen it before.
0 likes   
Top
B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#12 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:26 am

So you don't know what it is either, Innotech?
0 likes   
Top
Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#13 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:34 am

At least the A98E seems to be laying off the crack pipe this time around.
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#14 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:46 am

i expect they will continue to trend west
0 likes   
Top
below zero
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:58 pm
Location: S. Florida

#15 Postby below zero » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:08 pm

well that sounds like fun, first hurricane frances now hurricane ivan.

ivan will probably finish off what frances left still intact on this peninsula... :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: hurricanes1234 and 245 guests